20-year Business Aircraft Market Forecast predicts 24,000
deliveries from 2011 to 2030
Bombardier's annual aircraft market forecasts for the business
and commercial aircraft markets were released Tuesday at EBACE. The
company projects that, while both business and commercial aircraft
were affected by the recession, business aircraft industry
indicators are trending upwards, and the commercial aircraft market
is seeing the beginning of a market recovery. China, India and
other developing regions are leading the global industry recovery
and are expected to capture an increasingly important share of
industry orders in both the business and commercial aircraft
markets.
Global Family
"In 2011, we mark our 25th anniversary in the aerospace
industry, and innovation has been a key driver of our successes
during the last quarter century," said Guy C. Hachey, President and
Chief Operating Officer, Bombardier Aerospace. "We are confident in
our future, and as the market continues to recover, we are building
on our strong commitment to innovation and reinforcing our
leadership position in commercial and business aviation."
"Maintaining our focus on new product development, such as the
Learjet 85 and CSeries aircraft, the Global Vision flight deck, and
the recently launched Global 7000 and Global 8000 business jets,
and successfully delivering products that meet the needs of our
customers, such as the CRJ1000 NextGen aircraft, will help us
emerge from the recession at the forefront of our industry," said
Mairead Lavery, Vice President, Strategy, Business Development and
Structured Finance, Bombardier Aerospace.
For the 20-year period from 2011 to 2030, the Bombardier
Business Aircraft Market Forecast predicts a return to sustained
growth in business aviation, with business jet manufacturers
delivering a total of 24,000 business jets in all segments in which
Bombardier competes(i), representing total revenues of
approximately $626 billion(ii) for the industry. For the 10-year
period spanning 2011 to 2020, 10,000 deliveries worth $260 billion
are anticipated, and 14,000 deliveries worth $366 billion are
anticipated in the 10-year period from 2021 to 2030.
Challenger 605
The business aircraft industry's improving book-to-bill ratio is
a positive signal that the market has turned the corner and is
gaining momentum. While industry deliveries are not expected to
improve significantly in 2011, key indicators are showing an upward
trend, and it is expected that business aircraft deliveries will
continue to grow in 2012. In addition, with a widening customer
base for business aircraft - especially in high-growth economies -
Bombardier anticipates that North America, Europe and China will be
the three most active markets going forward and will generate the
most revenues over the next 20 years.
In an increasingly competitive market, Bombardier maintained its
market leadership through the initial phases of the business jet
market recovery, with 107 net orders for the fiscal year ended
January 31, 2011 - more than any of its competitors. On this
positive note, Bombardier will maintain its focus on strengthening
its market leadership position by continuing to invest in its new
programs: the Learjet 85, Global 7000 and Global 8000 aircraft and
the Global Vision flight deck. With its strong product line,
dedication to providing superior customer support and continued
vision in product development, Bombardier plans to benefit from the
expected long-term market growth and to continue to lead the way in
business aviation.
According to the Bombardier Commercial Aircraft Market Forecast,
demand for 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft is expected to
result in 13,100 new aircraft deliveries during the 20-year period
from 2011 to 2030. This is an increase of 300 units compared to
last year's forecast. The forecast delivery demand is valued at
approximately $639 billion.
CSeries Aircraft Artists' Rendering
Worldwide interest in new generation technology with improved
operating efficiencies, passenger comfort and a reduced
environmental impact, paired with expected economic growth in
developing markets, will drive the demand for new commercial
aircraft.
As air travel demand is linked to economic growth, signs that a
global recovery is underway are reflected in strengthened demand
for new commercial aircraft in both developed and emerging markets.
In this 20-year forecast, the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
is anticipated to grow at an average of 3.4 per cent per year, up
0.2 points from last year's average of 3.2 per cent.
In developing markets, economic growth forecasts are well above
the worldwide average, presenting sizeable opportunities for new
aircraft sales. It is anticipated that over the next 20 years,
commercial aircraft demand from markets outside of North America
and Europe will increase considerably. Illustratively, it is
forecast that China's fleet of 20- to 149-seat commercial aircraft
will become the third largest, closely behind Europe and the
U.S.
An area of concern in the industry continues to be the rising
cost and volatility of oil prices, which creates uncertainty in the
planning activities of many airlines. Combined with the political
changes taking place in many of the oil producing countries, and
recent climatic events such as the earthquake and tsunami in Japan,
the global demand for air travel has slowed in the short term.
However, in the long term, the price of oil will drive airlines to
accelerate the retirement of older, less efficient aircraft,
increasing the demand for new-technology, more fuel-efficient
aircraft.
Operators' shift toward modern aircraft with low operating costs
will also be driven by continuing yield pressures and a global
focus on environmental sustainability.
Additionally, more than half of the current commercial aircraft
fleet will be replaced over the next 20 years due to technical
obsolescence, with the largest number of these replacements being
in the 100- to 149-seat category.
Delivery of three distinct commercial aircraft families will
continue to be the foundation of Bombardier's strategic plan. The
Q400 NextGen turbroprop and CRJ NextGen aircraft family will serve
the regional airline market, while the CSeries aircraft family will
serve the mainline and low-cost carrier market segments. All three
aircraft families feature a reduced environmental footprint, low
operating costs, passenger comfort and significant operational
flexibility, the sum of which provides significant value to
Bombardier's customers.