Russian Alternative Less Appealing By The Day

Faced with a five-year gap between the space shuttle's 2010 retirement date and the first manned flight of an Orion space capsule, NASA is confronted with an increasingly unappealing choice: continuing flying an aging spacecraft many believe is inherently unsafe... or cast its lot with a newly resurgent, and increasingly belligerent, former enemy.

The Associated Press reports NASA recently ordered a quiet study of NASA's options for extending shuttle flights past the September 2010 retirement date. The study seeks to determine whether the agency could continue flying the shuttles safely.

"We want to focus on helping bridge the gap of US vehicles traveling to the ISS as efficiently as possible," wrote John Coggeshall, manager of manifest and schedules at Johnson Space Center in Houston, in the e-mail sent last week and obtained by the AP.

NASA spokesman John Yembrick confirmed the email is authentic, but adds it's too soon to determine what the outcome of the study may be. "The e-mail is premature," he said. "The parameters of the study have not yet been defined."

When President Bush mandated the 2010 retirement date for the shuttle fleet four years ago, NASA had planned on the first manned Orion flight to come in 2014... one full year before today's most optimistic estimates. Back in 2004, Griffin hoped a private spacecraft provider could help NASA continue flights to the International Space Station, to complement the agency's plans to purchase Soyuz capsules to launch itself.

Alas, times -- and in particular, political tensions -- have changed.

Russia's recent invasion of the former Soviet state of Georgia has resulted in Cold War-esque tensions in the relationship between the US and Russia... so it seems increasingly risky to bank America's hopes for space travel on that country. And so far, there appears to be little hope for a private spacecraft to arrive in time to fill the gap.

Both major presidential candidates appear to support extending the deadline, as well. Republican John McCain joined several colleagues in the Senate in asking NASA to postpone retirement activities for at least a year... while his Democrat opponent, Barack Obama, recently said he wants $2 billion to extend the shuttle program.

While the Russian situation certainly factored into those statements... the larger concern to both candidates was likely the significant job losses along the Space Coast once the shuttle program ends. In an election year, politicians try to avoid that subject as much as they can.

Perhaps the biggest question, however, is one of safety. Though NASA's shuttle launch record has been exemplary following the 2003 loss of Columbia, program managers concede each shuttle launch carries added risks.

NASA Administrator Michael Griffin has been a vocal opponent of any proposal to continuing flying the shuttles. "The shuttle is an inherently risky design. We currently assess the per-mission risk as about one in 75 of having a fatal accident," Griffin told a Senate panel in April. "If one were to do, as some have suggested, fly the shuttle for an additional five years, say two missions a year, the risk would be about one in 12 that we would lose another crew."

Those numbers are discouraging... but since the only alternative seems to be hitching rides onboard Russian Soyuz capsules, even Griffin may now be willing to discuss extending the shuttle's lifespan.

FMI: www.nasa.gov