Strength And Resilience Of Single-Aisle Market Driving
Forecast
The Indian market for new passenger airplanes will reach 1320
new aircraft and $150 billion over the next 20 years, according to
market research conducted by Boeing. Driving that surge will be
double-digit growth in the Indian economy, stimulating strong
demand for new and replacement airplanes. Boeing India President
Dinesh Keskar shared the forecast Tuesday in Boeing's outlook for
India's commercial airplane market through 2030.
"Robust growth with new economic prosperity amongst a massive
Indian population, discretionary incomes, business progress and
access to airports will increase airplane demand," Keskar said. "In
2011, the economy continues to do well. Indian air carriers are
becoming profitable and we expect the GDP to maintain its upward
trend in the long-term. As a result, both the air travel and air
cargo markets will grow." Keskar also said that airline revenue and
yields were up, but high inflation and volatile fuel prices will
play a pivotal role in the health of the industry.
Passenger traffic, which has reached 53.6 million domestic
(fiscal 2011) and 13.1 million international, is expected to grow
at 8.1 percent annually over the long-term. "The economic and
air-traffic growth will in turn stimulate demand for a variety of
aircraft types," Keskar said. "The need is great for new airplanes
that can efficiently and profitably fly short and long-haul routes.
This demand is driven by growth in developing and emerging cities,
demand from low-cost carriers and the need to replace an aging
fleet."
In the planemakers assessment, the biggest demand will be for
single-aisle airplanes. To keep up with anticipated demand, Boeing
recently announced it will boost production to a record 42 737s per
month by the first half of 2014. Boeing airplanes currently
dominate India's long-haul international fleet, with 777s and 747s
in service, soon to be joined by the 787 Dreamliner. "The
super-efficient 787 will offer significant economic improvement for
airlines, increased comfort for passengers and better environmental
performance," Keskar said.
India's airlines have been growing rapidly by taking advantage
of geography, demographics, airplane technology and
well-coordinated growth and investment plans. Some carriers, like
Air India also are looking for replacement airplanes as they retire
aging and less-efficient jets. Boeing predicts that India-based
airlines also will grow by responding to passenger preference for
more flight choices, lower fares and direct access to a wider range
of destinations. Air carriers will focus on offering more flights
using more efficient airplanes, instead of significantly larger
airplanes.
Globally, Boeing forecasts a $4 trillion market for new aircraft
over the next 20 years with a significant increase in deliveries.
The company sees a market for 33,500 new passenger airplanes and
freighters between 2011 and 2030. Passenger traffic is expected to
grow at 5.1 percent annual rate over the long-term and the world
fleet is expected to double by 2030.