Aero-Analysis by ANN Editor-In-Chief, Jim Campbell
On Thursday, GAMA
announced that GA "continued a strong recovery through the third
quarter of 2004. Industry billings were up 15.9 percent to $7.8
billion for the first nine months of 2004, while total units rose
7.7 percent to 1,928."
It was good news, but closer examination of some of the
more remarkable numbers reveals even more to feel good about... as
a number of up and coming single-engine product lines continue to
take a more prominent role in the GA world.
Cessna Aircraft
Cessna's single engine line continued to rack up respectable
sales numbers and the future looks good for this series as the new
G1000 offerings excite new sales activity among a highly-respected
product line. However; Cirrus is still leading them, among
four-seaters, for the year. That is likely to change by the time
the year ends because Cessna's production capability far outstrips
any of the competition and excitement over the G1000 is feeding the
order books nicely. The one thing we don't know is how many of
Cessna's "sales" are to dealers (who will inventory them until
sold) and how many are to registered end-buyers... a sore point
among much of the competition when sales numbers are totaled up.
Regardless; Cessna has some good news to crow about and rumors of
an "all-new airplane" continue to be heard, with increasing
regularity. We do not have specific data about the total value of
Cessna's YTD single-engine piston sales.
Cessna Aircraft Single-Engine Piston
|
|
A/C Type
|
1Q
|
2Q
|
3Q
|
YTD
|
172 Skyhawk |
8
|
12
|
3
|
23
|
172S Skyhawk |
53
|
34
|
43
|
130
|
182 Skylane |
20
|
5
|
85
|
110
|
182T Skylane |
8
|
0
|
68
|
76
|
206 Stationair |
5
|
7
|
1
|
13
|
206T Stationair |
12
|
3
|
3
|
18
|
Total S/E Units |
106
|
61
|
203
|
370
|
Cirrus Design
Mind you; no one is crying for Cirrus... who continues to sell
EVERYTHING they can build. Unheard of a decade ago, this is THE
company everyone watches these days... usually the first to the
market with new technologies and doing a marketing job unequaled by
any other company... for the moment. Cirrus will probably finish
out the year just behind Cessna (unless the Garmin G1000 can't be
delivered as fast as Cessna and a number of other vendors want
them... a significant concern... this product is VERY hot right
now), but doesn't feel as if this is a defeat, if that happens.
"We're selling everything we can build and we still have a healthy
backlog... we really can't ask for more than that," notes Cirrus
CEO Alan Klapmeier. Total value of YTD sales is a staggering
$141,869,339.
Cirrus Design
Single-Engine Piston
|
|
A/C Type
|
1Q
|
2Q
|
3Q
|
YTD
|
Cirrus SRV |
1
|
0
|
2
|
3
|
Cirrus SR20 |
38
|
2
|
39
|
79
|
Cirrus SR22 |
66
|
127
|
110
|
303
|
Total Units |
105
|
129
|
151
|
385
|
Diamond Aircraft
This is THE company to watch... with one of the most
comprehensive product lines proposed for the next few years
(everything from a single-engine two-seater to a diesel twin and a
single engine jet), no one has filled out their product line
as adeptly or as aggressively as Diamond. Excellent customer
service marks are not hurting the matter at all and turning a
number of potential sales their way due to excellent word of mouth.
The coming introduction of the twin-engine Thielert diesel or
Lycoming versions of the DA42 are expected to have an impact
on the single-engine numbers, especially among high-performance
aircraft as pilots who here-to-fore could not afford or find the
value they wanted among current twin offerings finally get what
they've been looking for -- a solid high-performance IFR twin for
less than $500K. 2004 YTD billings totaled $40,835,000.
Diamond Aircraft Single-Engine Piston
|
|
A/C Type
|
1Q
|
2Q
|
3Q
|
YTD
|
DA20 |
13
|
17
|
11
|
41
|
DA40 |
44
|
24
|
72
|
140
|
Total Units |
57
|
41
|
83
|
181
|
Lancair Aircraft
What a difference a year makes. Once moribund Lancair, who
battled financial woes and a test-flight crash that put the
long-awaited Columbia 400 a ways behind schedule, definitely
appears to be coming back strong. With the "King Of The Hill"
Columbia 400 laying claim to being the fastest bird on the block,
Lancair will be able to live off the Columbia 400 for quite a while
while a 50% increase in overall production is forecast
for 2005. We predict that they will also be able to sell
everything that they can build for quite a while. With additional
attention being paid to marketing, aggressive work on
much-asked-for options (especially air conditioning, weather, and
onboard charts) and the financial battles behind them, Lancair is
poised to be a prominent player for the foreseeable future... and
if a much-rumored, pressurized, version of the Columbia shows up
within the next few years, this product line could lead the
high-performance piston game for a considerable period of
time.
Lancair Aircraft Single-Engine Piston
|
|
A/C Type
|
1Q
|
2Q
|
3Q
|
YTD
|
Columbia 350 |
17
|
11
|
0
|
28
|
Columbia 400 |
0
|
9
|
17
|
26
|
Total Units |
17
|
20
|
17
|
54
|
Mooney Aircraft
Also back from the grave is Mooney Aircraft, who has jumped
fully on the G1000 bandwagon and stirred up the pot recently with
solid financing packages and some renewed marketing. A new CEO
is in place now, and upcoming production changes are expected to
further enhance this company's standing in the GA world. A strong
parts business for previously manufactured Mooneys, and a loyal
following among previous Mooney owners bodes well for the company
but aggressive new thinking and offerings may allow Mooney to
assume a position near the head of the pack once again... though
it's likely to be a slower process for Mooney than for some of
their competitors. 2004 YTD sales total $7,525,775.
Mooney Aircraft Single-Engine Piston
|
|
A/C Type
|
1Q
|
2Q
|
3Q
|
YTD
|
M20M Bravo DX |
3
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
M20R Ovation2 DX |
5
|
4
|
3
|
12
|
Total Units |
8
|
5
|
4
|
17
|
New Piper Aircraft
Recent gains in market share, enhanced by the introduction of
the Avidyne Entegra EFIS line to a number of Piper airframes, may
be eclipsed somewhat due to temporary production problems induced
by hurricane damage over the last few months. Still; excellent
production facilities and capabilities put Piper in a solid
position to capitalize on the additional activity these updated
airframes will see on the sales front thanks to the upgraded
panels. Particularly strong is Piper's position when it comes to
six-place airframes, where their only significant competition comes
from Cessna. Specific 2004 YTD sales numbers for the single-engine
line were not received.
New Piper Aircraft
Single-Engine Piston
|
|
A/C Type
|
1Q
|
2Q
|
3Q
|
YTD
|
PA-28-161 Warrior III |
7
|
6
|
4
|
17
|
PA-28-181 Archer III |
7
|
4
|
1
|
12
|
PA-28R-201 Arrow |
3
|
5
|
3
|
11
|
PA-32R-301 Saratoga II HP |
0
|
4
|
5
|
9
|
PA-32R-301T Saratoga II TC |
6
|
14
|
8
|
28
|
PA-32-301FT Piper 6X |
9
|
7
|
7
|
23
|
PA-32-301XTC Piper 6XT |
6
|
3
|
3
|
12
|
Total S/E Units |
38
|
43
|
31
|
112
|
Summary
While the preceding summaries only touch upon most of the more
notable companies doing business in the GA community, it is by no
means complete. The total numbers for the year 2004, domestically
and internationally, does reflect a solid growth pattern that is
expected to continue through 2005-06... from there, though, the
crystal ball gets a little fuzzier... especially as the first
generation of very light jets starts showing up and stealing sales
from all ranks of the GA production schedule. And that's when
things get REALLY interesting. We'll keep you
updated.
Airplane Shipments by Type: Manufactured
Worldwide
|
Type
|
1Q
|
2Q
|
3Q
|
YTD
|
Single-Engine Piston |
388
|
363
|
552
|
1,303
|
|
Airplane Shipments by Type: Manufactured
USA
|
Single-Engine Piston |
322
|
313
|
462
|
1,097
|