The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown and,
utilization from the General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity and
Avionics Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon which assumed
growth rates can be applied. This survey has been conducted
annually since 1977. As noted previously, beginning with the CY2004
Survey there were significant improvements to the survey
methodology. These improvements included conducting 100 percent
samples for turboprops and turbojets, all rotorcraft, all aircraft
in Alaska and all aircraft operating on-demand under Part 135.
The changes resulted in the sample size nearly doubling. At the
same time the survey methodology changed, large changes in both the
number of aircraft and hours in many categories occurred. It is
unclear whether the large changes mentioned above are due to the
methodological changes described. FAA is assuming that the changes
observed in the past two years of the Survey are in fact indicative
of changes in the underlying population.
As such, we believe that because of the methodological
improvements, current estimates from the GA Survey are superior to
those in the past and are used as the basis for our forecast.
Because the Survey is on a calendar year basis, the 2005 statistics
are the latest available. Figures for 2006 are estimated based on
other activity indicators and the forecasts of activity begin in
2007 and continue through 2020.
As the demand for business jets has grown over the past several
years, the current forecast assumes that business use of general
aviation aircraft will expand at a more rapid pace than that for
personal/sport use. The business/corporate side of general aviation
should continue to benefit from a growing market for new microjets.
In addition, corporate safety/security concerns for corporate
staff, combined with increased processing times at some US airports
have made fractional, corporate, and on-demand charter flights
practical alternatives to travel on commercial flights.
The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an
average annual rate of 1.4 percent over the 14-year forecast
period, growing from an estimated 226,422 in 2006 to 274,914
aircraft in 2020. The more expensive and sophisticated
turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is projected to grow
at an average of 3.6 percent a year over the 14-year forecast
period with the turbine jet fleet increasing at 6.0 percent per
year.
At the October 2006 TRB/FAA workshop, industry experts suggested
the market for new microjets could add 500 aircraft a year to the
active fleet by 2010. The relatively inexpensive twin-engine
microjets (priced between $1 and $2 million) are believed by many
to have the potential to redefine the business jet segment by
expanding business jet flying and offering performance that could
support a true ondemand air-taxi business service. This
year’s forecast assumes that microjets will begin to enter
the active fleet in 2007 (350 aircraft) and grow by 400 to 500
aircraft a year after that, reaching 6,300 aircraft by 2020.
The number of piston-powered aircraft (including rotorcraft) is
projected to increase from 170,967 in 2006 to 181,750 in 2020, an
average increase of 0.4 percent yearly. Although piston rotorcraft
are projected to increase rapidly (5.7 percent per year) they are a
relatively small component of this segment of general aviation
aircraft. Single-engine and multi-engine fixed-wing piston
aircraft, which are much more numerous, are projected to grow at
much slower rates (0.3 and -0.2 percent respectively) leading to
the low growth of the piston-powered fleet. In addition, it is
assumed that relatively inexpensive microjets and new light sport
aircraft could erode the replacement market for traditional piston
aircraft at the high and low ends of the market respectively.
Starting in 2005, a new category of aircraft (previously not
included in the FAA's aircraft registry counts) was created: "light
sport" aircraft. The forecast assumes registration of 5,600
aircraft over a 5-year period beginning in 2006 including both
newly built aircraft and conversions from ultralight trainers. This
new aircraft category is projected to total roughly 13,200 in
2020.
The number of general aviation hours flown is projected to
increase by 3.4 percent yearly over the 14-year forecast period.
Much of the increase reflects increased flying by business and
corporate aircraft as well as steady if relatively small annual
percentage increases in utilization rates for piston aircraft.
Hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast
to increase 6.1 percent yearly over the forecast period, compared
with 1.3 percent for piston-powered aircraft. Jet aircraft are
forecast to account for most of the increase, with hours flown
expanding at an average annual rate of 9.4 percent over the 14
years. The large increases in jet hours result from the
introduction of microjets, as well as increases in the fractional
ownership fleet and its activity levels. Fractional ownership
aircraft fly about 1,200 hours annually compared to roughly 350
hours for all business jets in all applications.
Very light jets (VLJs) are expected to function much differently
than traditional turbojets. Because of this, FAA has made separate
assumptions for traditional turbojets and VLJs. The assumptions
underlying the very light jet (VLJ) forecast are vital for both
fleet and hours flown. Assumptions are made for the entire VLJ
fleet and also for the distribution of that fleet among air taxi
use, private use and fractional use. For the various uses,
assumptions are made about utilization rates which, along with
fleet sizes, determine hours flown. Utilization rates for VLJs will
vary by mission. VLJ air taxis are expected to average
approximately 1,500 hours per year, fractionals 1,200 and private
use 350. This results in an expected utilization rate for all VLJs
in 2020 of 1,067 hours. Traditional (non-VLJ) turbojets are
expected to average approximately 407 hours per year by 2020, since
VLJs are expected to have a greater share of their use in on-demand
air taxi than the traditional turbojets.
The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding air
transport pilots) is projected to be 506,097 in 2020, an increase
of almost 51,000 (up 0.8 percent yearly) over the forecast period.
Commercial pilots are projected to increase from 117,610 in 2006 to
130,590 in 2020, an average annual increase of 0.8 percent. The
number of student pilots increase from 84,866 in 2006 to 100,181 in
2020, an average annual rate of 1.2 percent. In addition, FAA is
projecting that 16,252 new sport pilots will be certified during
the forecast period. As of December 31, 2006, the number of sport
pilot certificates issued was 939, reflecting a growing interest in
this new "entry level" pilot certificate that was only created in
2005. The number of private pilots is projected to total 219,655 in
2020, just 422 higher than the total in 2006.