Wed, May 17, 2006
Predicts 10,087 Business Aircraft Will Be Built In Next
Decade
A total of 10,087 business aircraft -- valued at $141.1 billion
in 2006 US dollars -- will be produced over the 2006-2015 decade.
That's what Teal Group analysts predicted in their 16th annual
world business aircraft production forecast, released Tuesday on
opening day of the 2006 ILA Berlin Air Show.
That is a significant increase over the group's 15th annual
forecast last year, that called for 7,417 business jets worth
$106.7 billion to be produced in 2005-2014.
"These are great times. High corporate profits and high
commodity prices, coupled with emerging market growth, have
produced a likely all-time market high this year -- 901 planes
worth $13.6 billion -- with further growth likely into 2007," said
Richard Aboulafia, lead analyst for Teal Group's World Military
& Civil Aircraft Briefing.
Among the highlights of the 1,400-page report:
- "After 2007 (the market peak) we predict a modest market dip,
but this industry looks set to remain considerably larger than
before its pre-1996-2001 transformation, when it experienced
350-percent growth," said Aboulafia.
- Of the 10,087 business
jets worth $141.1 billion (again in 2006 dollars) that Teal
analysts expect to be produced over the next 10 years, over 40
percent of these (by value) will be Class Four and Five (high-end)
models. "We also forecast production of 296 versions of jetliners
and regional jets worth a combined total of $8.9 billion," said
Aboulafia. For comparison, the last ten years (1996-2005) saw
production of 5,857 jets worth $94.5 (plus 115 jetliners and
regional jets worth $5.8 billion).
- "We remain air taxi agnostics, although we do forecast a market
for 2,310 very light jets (VLJs), including 620 Cessna Citation
Mustangs," he said. ("Perspective: double our VLJ numbers to 500
per year and you only grow the total business jet market 3% by
value")
- "Bombardier and Gulfstream will be the market leaders (25% and
23.9%, respectively)," he said, "followed by Dassault (19.2%) and
Cessna (18%) at the second tier. Raytheon will be left with 10.1%.
New very light jet (VLJ) makers, plus Embraer and Sino-Swearingen,
look set to get 3.8% of the market in our forecast period,"
concluded Aboulafia.
- "We also remain strong believers in a supersonic business jet,
arriving just after our forecast period," said Aboulafia.
The Teal Group is located in Hall 8 at ILA 2006, directly across
from the EADS exhibit area. Group analysts will pull booth duty at
various times throughout the show, according to the group.
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