Fri, Jul 10, 2009
Peak Year Of 2008 Was A "Perfect Storm" For The Industry
In its proprietary forecast of worldwide deliveries of new
business jets, market analysts Brian Foley Associates do not
anticipate the industry topping 2008 levels within their 10 year
forecast horizon.
Brian Foley
"A confluence of factors came together to create last
year's record breaking 1313 aircraft deliveries" according to
President Brian Foley. "The probability of each major
market driver of business jet sales simultaneously peaking again
seems remote."
In evaluating the factors which created the phenomenal 2003-2008
business jet delivery upturn, nearly everything that could possibly
go right for new sales materialized according to Foley.
Worldwide stock market indices set new highs, Gross Domestic
Product was strong with some regions registering double-digit
figures and corporate profits and personal wealth were growing and
abundant. In addition, the value of the dollar plummeted
which stimulated international markets to buy dollar-denominated
business jets in great numbers.
Foley also cites that around 50% of all business jet purchases
are financed. "The easy credit environment featuring low
interest rates, zero down payments and extended terms just won't
exist any time soon which will completely eliminate a stratum of
buyers in the next upturn. This will be compounded by
negative Capitol Hill business jet rhetoric which will dampen
enthusiasm in the world's largest market (the US) for the next few
years."
File Photo
"Since aircraft deliveries lag sales by
a year or two, the perfect sales environment would have to
materialize again within the next 8 years to be captured in our
multi-engine delivery forecast through 2018. That seems
unlikely in this environment following a worldwide recession,"
Foley said. "Analogous to the airline industry, as the
relatively young business jet industry matures it will eventually
discover that there's a finite market for business jets and that
every upturn will not necessarily have to be bigger than the
last."
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