Airlines Want New Narrowbodies... But Planemakers Holding Off

Much has been reported about delays in development of new widebody airliners by Boeing and Airbus. But as fuel prices go nuts, airlines suddenly need to modernize their narrowbody fleets, and those development programs have been pushed back years as planemakers get their widebody programs back on track.

Steven Udvar-Hazy (right), CEO of International Lease Finance Corp., tells Bloomberg that newer, more fuel-efficient narrowbodies from Airbus and Boeing may not be available till 2020. ILFC is the worlds largest purchase of airliners, for leasing to airlines and other end users.

Udvar-Hazy says of Airbus and Boeing, "Neither is in a position to launch a single-aisle program. A year ago, I would have said 2016, but the complexity of the A380, the A350 and the 787 are just starting to be awoken to by the two manufacturers."

Boeing's 737 has been around since 1968, and got a significant update to coincide with the introduction of the Airbus A320 series in the mid-90s. Between them, the planes have a backlog of more than 7,000 orders, but Air France-KLM Group says it needs a successor now to reduce fuel costs.

Airbus chief operating officer and head of sales John Leahy admitted this week a replacement for the A320 has been pushed back. The company says it won't fly until 2017, but has never given a definitive production target date.

For their parts, Boeing and Airbus say development of their next-generation narrowbodies have less to do with problems with their respective large aircraft programs, and more to do with limits to available technology.

The planemakers note airliners have become as much as 70 percent more efficient in the past 40 years, but current technologies are near the upper threshold of improvements to be made... and until a significant leap forward in fuel efficiency is reached, there's little point to bringing out brand-new airplanes with only slight gains in fuel economy or payload.

ILFC, which is based in Los Angeles, has 230 orders pending with Airbus and Boeing. The Airbus A350 XWB is now expected to enter service in 2013, and Boeing's 787 Dreamliner is expected to begin deliveries to customers in 2009.

FMI: www.ilfc.com, www.airbus.com, www.boeing.com