Though Actively Purchased, Flown, and Operated, the Lightning Has Yet to Reach Full-Rate Production or Finish Initial Operational Testing

The Government Accountability Office has released its findings on the F-35 Lightning's progress, calling attention to the extensive cost overruns and long delays in meeting program timelines. 

The DoD has not yet authorized the F-35 program to begin full-rate production, which is normally reserved for the point at which a system "demonstrates an acceptable level of performance and reliability". The GAO said that a large portion of the wait stems from difficulties in developing the F-35 Joint Simulation Environment, a sim that runs the aircraft's mission systems software alongside other software models to create a simulated environment for conducting complex test scenarios that cannot be replicated in a real-world test. The program office finished the last remaining open-air weapons trial in 2021, but must finish 64 simulated trials before initial operational testing can be finished. 

Despite the delay, the GAO adds, the DoD plans to acquire 152 additional F-35s per year, which would place it on track to have purchased 1,115, about 1/3 of all planned fighters before reaching production as early as 2023. The concurrent development idea has once again bitten a program, as the GAO hints at further ballooning costs for an immature weapons system to be procured in such numbers before all performance issues are discovered. 

Additionally, they note, the DoD is 4 years into the development of its modernization effort, Block 4. That program has its own rising costs, brought on by required upgrades for crucial hardware and testing systems. The program office extended Block 4 development and delivery into FY2029, pushing it 3 years beyond the original plan.

The office has paid lip service to improving timeliness and quality, specifically for software deliveries, but no concrete changes have been delivered so far. Last year, it was reported that the aircraft's ALIS system would be replaced, swapping the problematic logistics ecosystem with the newer ODIN. 

The production problem isn't going anywhere soon, judging from their assessment of the current prospects. "As a result of delays in completing initial operational testing," the GAO report said, "DoD postponed the F-35 full-rate production decision but continues to buy aircraft at near full production rates. The program office has delayed full-rate production several times since the program began, as we have previously reported. At this point the full-rate production decision is expected to occur over a decade later than what the program office originally planned. Continuing to purchase aircraft at high rates before completing testing can increase retrofit costs as the program continues to identify and resolve deficiencies." 

On the bright side, the biggest, most pressing problem areas are being addressed. "As of December 2021, the program office expected to resolve all four of its open critical deficiencies with the aircraft before the full-rate production decision. Open critical deficiencies include issues with the night vision camera and cabin overpressurization," the report said. Unfortunately, those deficiencies are the critical, most pressing problems. The GAO said that there are plenty more where those came from. "The program also has 822 other less-critical deficiencies open, but does not plan to close all of them prior to the full-rate production decision and will not address some," they said. 

FMI: www.gao.gov