Consolidation May Mean (Surprise!) Higher Ticket Prices

Airlines are gradually recovering from the disastrous economic attack of 9/11 -- and now many experts expect that with increased profits and confidence, some of them may merge.

The Los Angeles Times reports travel industry experts now believe a merger between Delta and Northwest is all but inevitable. Both are emerging from difficult bankruptcies and their complementary route networks -- Delta in South, and Northwest in the, well, North and West -- would make a single large airline capable of complete US coverage.

The other pairing is likely between United, strong in the West and Asia, and Continental with routes in the South and Latin America.

These older airlines, the so-called legacy carriers, tend to have higher operating and employment costs than the newer upstart lines. Experts see a number of ramifications.

"I have yet to see the elimination of competition bring the price down," said Minneapolis-based Terry Trippler, a longtime Northwest Airlines watcher and airfare analyst for MyVacationPassport.com.

The other bad news is an expected reduction in seat capacity and frequent flier reward seats. Formerly elite business travellers would be competing with those of the other carriers, likely causing more dissatisfaction with airline travel.

Already airline capacity is significantly less than before 9-11 which is why you seldom see an empty middle seat anymore. "I think there's a lot of desire among the fans of the legacy carriers to reduce capacity,"  Michael Roach, a principal at Roach & Sbarra, an aviation consulting firm, told the Times.

Fewer flights, fewer flight crews, fewer seats, and higher prices seems to be in the airline traveller's future.

On the bright side, analysts expect that there will increased stability in the air transportation system and also fewer labor strikes. So that should make you feel better.

FMI: www.airlines.org