Although Forecast1 Says Market Will Be Flat For Next
Decade
Although civil helicopter deliveries began rising in 2003 and
registered further gains in 2004, this market will remain
relatively flat during the next 10 years, according to Forecast
International's "World Commercial Rotorcraft Market." Current
shipments are receiving a major boost from the piston-powered
Robinson Helicopter models, the two-seat R22 and the four-place
R44. It should be noted, though, that annual output, which totaled
just under 1,250 shipments in 2004, will fall off gradually through
2011 before rising to about 1,000 deliveries in 2013.
"Eurocopter continues its strong dominance of the
turbine-powered helicopter segment, a trend expected to continue
beyond the 10-year forecast period," said the report’s
author, Bill Dane. He added, "The consortium is expected to account
for about 30 percent of the revenues market, nearly twice the share
of its closest competitor."
Bell Helicopter’s long-awaited strategic plans are finally
coming into focus. The company is developing a Modular Affordable
Product Line (MAPL) of light singles and twins spanning the five-
to eight-seat-capacity range. Very few technical details have been
disclosed; Bell hopes to have three new models in production by the
end of this decade in a bid to reassert its market presence. Bell
has also launched an IFR-capable 427i model with partners Korea
Aerospace and Mitsui Bussan. The current VFR-only 427 has not sold
well against the competing MD Explorer, A109 Power, and EC 135
types.
With its Italian partner Agusta, Bell plans to obtain FAA
certification of its BA609 tiltrotor (below) in late 2007. The
Italo-American team shipped its first AB139 a year ago and
announced that a second assembly line would begin delivering
aircraft from a Texas site in 2006. MD Helicopter claims to have
resolved problems with delayed shipments from its suppliers, and by
2008 it is expected to make double the number of deliveries made in
2004.
Sikorsky has acquired Schweizer, which will provide it with a
ready-made, if rather limited, access to the lower end of the
rotary-wing market. In the near term it appears Sikorsky was more
motivated by the opportunities for entering the UAV and homeland
security markets through the acquisition, but over the long term it
would be reasonable to expect collaboration on derivatives and
larger follow-on designs of Schweizer’s current piston and
turbine models. This acquisition follows the recent establishment
of the Shanghai Sikorsky joint venture in China, which will involve
local assembly of Schweizer 300 and 333 model helicopters.
Taiwan’s Aero Industry Development Corp. (AIDC) has
proposed a link-up with Enstrom Helicopter, a development that
could ultimately see the government of Taiwan taking a stake in the
US company. AIDC has reportedly identified Enstrom as a potential
acquisition target and sees the production of light helicopters as
a possible new business opportunity. This is by no means a done
deal, however, and many analysts question whether AIDC could raise
the capital needed to purchase all or a substantial part of
Enstrom.
"While the overall annual deliveries will decline over the next
10 years, we would point out that shipments of turbine-powered
helicopters, at 567 in 2004, will rise to 615-620 per year in the
2008-2010 timeframe before falling off to 580-590 annual deliveries
in 2012-13," Dane said. The near-term spike is due in no small part
to the order backlogs of a number of recently announced new models;
manufacturers have been working to reduce this backlog during the
past two years.
For the 2005-2014 forecast period, Forecast International is
projecting shipments of approximately 10,500 commercial rotary-wing
aircraft, valued at just under $20.25 billion.