Says Operators Will Need 22,000+ Planes Over Next 20 Years

According to market research by Airbus, aircraft operators will need some 22,700 new passenger and freight aircraft between 2006 and 2025. Airbus values that estimate $2.6 trillion. This represents an increase of some 5,400 aircraft compared with the previous one.

"This forecast shows that aviation is a strong growth industry and one which is also vital for the development of the world economy. As leaders in the newest and most advanced technologies for fuel efficient and low noise aircraft, we recognize and act on the need to be sensitive to environmental concerns", John Leahy added.

Of the newly produced airliners, Airbus forecasts aircraft with more than 100 seats will comprise the vast majority of new aircraft purchases. That translates to average deliveries close to 1,100 passenger aircraft per year, up from around 800 two years ago.

The numbers derive from an average annual traffic growth of 4.8%. Airbus estimates passenger traffic growth of around two and a half times and an increase in the world aircraft fleet of some 14,600 aircraft.

The planemaker forecasts freight requirements to increase by 6% annually over the same period. That means 3,580 freighter deliveries, of which 800, or 22%, will be factory-built freighters. The rest will be conversions of former passenger planes.

Airbus says demand for more fuel-efficient aircraft will serve to drive overall demand. It says this factor alone will lead to a higher replacement rate of over 12,000 aircraft.

"Over the next 20 years the number of passenger aircraft will more than double. Since 2000, new operators as well as strong economic growth especially in emerging economies has fueled expansion of nearly 30 per cent in available seats", said John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating Officer Customers. "This trend is continuing with the Asia-Pacific region expected to grow to a third of the worldwide market by 2025."

Airbus believes transpacific, Europe to Asia and Transatlantic long haul routes will increase by 60 per cent. It estimates hub cities will double their traffic over the next 10 years. It's pinned its hopes that airlines will opt for larger aircraft such as its A380 to address environmental and airport congestion constraints. Larger aircraft with more seats mean fewer aircraft overall.

Europe's largest aircraft manufacturer predicts demand 1,660 aircraft in the Very Large Aircraft segment. That represents $503 billion, and 20 per cent of total sales. It says over 1,200 will be new passenger aircraft with Asia-Pacific accounting for over half of them.

Airbus predicts continued strong demand for twin-aisle passenger aircraft estimating some 5,300 deliveries in the next two decades. That will account for about $1 trillion of the total for all passenger aircraft deliveries. It believes the largest segment will be in the 250- and 300- seat market with a need for some 3,750 new aircraft.

According to Airbus' marketing gurus, more than 70 percent of all aircraft delivered within the next 20 years will be single-aisle types of 100 - 220 seats. That makes for 15,300 aircraft or 42% by value of all passenger aircraft delivered. While mainline single aisle aircraft demand will be highest in Europe and North America, in Asia, the low-cost market is expected to quintuple its fleet from 236 to over 1,300 by 2025.

FMI: www.airbus.com