"NextGen Yes, Congestion No" Speech Repeats Talking Points On Need For New ATC System

Editor's Note -- Below is the text of FAA Administrator Marion Blakey's speech before the FAA Forecast Conference Thursday in Washington, DC, entitled "Repeat After Me: NextGen Yes, Congestion No."

In her speech, the Administrator once again presents a compelling sales case for the need for improvements to the nation's air traffic control system -- a point few in the aviation community would dispute -- but stumbles in her assertion such a plan requires a drastic overhaul of current methods of FAA financing.

Groups such as AOPA and NBAA make far more compelling cases that such drastic measures are, in fact, not necessary... and they do it without resorting to comparisons to Starbucks.

It’s good to see a lot of familiar faces out there, and I see some new ones as well. So let me welcome all of you back, those of you who’ve been with us over the years. And if this is your first time here, well, congratulations, you’re about to become a part of history.

The FAA’s been holding the Forecast Conference for more than three decades now, and I’m proud to announce that this is our biggest crowd ever. Thanks for being here. If we’re talking about what’s on aviation’s horizon, then it must be that time of year.

You know, you can always gauge what month it is around here by three barometers: the Girl Scout cookies, the March Madness brackets, and this gathering right here.

A little later on, we’ve got a dynamic luncheon speaker in Glenn Tilton. I don’t know what he's going to say, but Glenn's like one of those brokerage firm commercials from days gone by — when he talks, people listen.

Fact is, people are sitting up and people are taking notice when aviation's in the house. And you know that was exactly our mindset when we came up with this year's theme.

If you didn't get the memo, aviation is back, ladies and gentlemen, back in a big way. Dare I say that some of the carriers, walking on wobbly legs for the last couple of years, are regaining sure footing?

Now tell me, when's the last time anyone heard the words "airline" and "profit" in the same sentence? Well I believe we can get used to it.

On the GA side, billings and shipments are up as well.

Indeed, aviation is on a resurgence everywhere, from Main Street to Wall Street. Over the last several months, three aircraft-related companies have filed their IPOs and gone public. One of the companies makes unmanned aircraft, another designs airplane structures like fuselages and propulsion systems, and the third leases airplanes.

If you look at what their stock prices are doing lately, you'll see that all three companies are going in the same direction as the rest of aviation — up.

Need more convincing that things aren't the same? Here's a forecast from one of Wall Street's most influential firms: "We think 2007 could be an even better year than 2006 for most airlines. Industry fundamentals have not been this good in years."

Now before we break out the champagne, let's down a little coffee. I'm sure by now many of you are familiar with that memo that made its way around the executive suite at Starbucks.

It was written by the CEO, the same guy who's convinced millions of people that paying $4 to see someone make a cup of joe would be worth the experience.

The boss says in the email that he's concerned that Starbucks is losing its Midas touch, that walking into one of their stores is no longer quote unquote "the experience" it once was.

Sound familiar? How many times have you heard about what flying used to be like?

Remember when Starbucks made the decision awhile back to go to automatic espresso machines? Well, it saved time and efficiency, but at what cost?

Well, let me quote the CEO again: "This specific decision became even more damaging when the height of the machines blocked the visual sight line the customer previously had to watch the drink being made, and for the intimate experience with the barista."

So, in the face of competition from McDonald's and Dunkin' Donuts, what does the head of the world's biggest coffee chain propose doing to regain that so-called customer experience?

Well, he writes: "Let's be smarter about how we are spending our time, money and resources. Push for innovation."

I think that's exactly what we are doing in aviation on a variety of fronts. One of the most important is moving to the NextGen that we've been discussing at length this morning. And I think that's exactly what we're seeking to accomplish with our legislation.

We're completely re-thinking the way the system is financed, because we know that the status quo won't get us to NextGen fast enough.

Pegging our revenues to a ticket tax may have worked back in the day, but it's not the way to go today. The time has come to push for innovation, and that's what our bill does. It puts the focus where it belongs, on the customer experience.

I think we'll all agree that the people whom we serve — our customers — don't deserve to be mired in congestion, circling and going nowhere.

I'm talking here about the guy in seat 22B. And I'm talking about the recreational pilot who wants to take her family up for a quick spin around the countryside.

We need to focus on what's really important here, and not just who picks up the tab.

If we don't get the stable financing we need, NextGen will be the solution to a problem that we anticipated and studied but failed to really address. And what's going to be the cost?

I'll tell you -- delays. Two thousand six was the worst ever on record. There were 491,860 commercial flights that didn't takeoff or land on time. That adds up to a lot of customers who didn't make it home when they hoped they would. And I hate to say it, but 2007 isn't looking any better.

In terms of commercial operations, we've got 18 of our biggest airports at their pre-9/11 highs. We're projecting that we'll add four more to the list -- Baltimore, Detroit, Newark and Phoenix -- in just the next couple of years.

The looming spike in passengers that's in our Forecast report will fuel a nationwide increase in takeoffs and landings by 2020. In turn, some key hubs will see a significant ramp-up in their operations.

Dulles is looking at a 68 percent increase. Out West, LAX may rise by 54 percent. That's total operations -- commercial and GA -- I'm talking about here.

Airports. They're one of the pillars in our NextGen endeavor.

In the last 40 years, we've added two -- DFW and Denver International. We may need to add as many as four more in the next 20 or 30 years. They would be either replacement or supplemental airports. The question is, where to put them?

We'll have a good idea soon. In the near future, the FAA will be releasing a study on the communities that need more airport capacity. It's called Capacity Needs in the National Airspace System, or FACT report, for short.

Since the first FACT study hit the streets back in '04, five new runways have opened for business. They include Hartsfield, Logan and St. Louis. Six more runways are under construction.

What we've learned so far with the FACT report is that some communities have made good progress, and we've taken them off our watch list. Others have been added.

While the report is being finalized, I can tell you that we'll continue to have capacity problems on both coasts. The congestion is becoming more chronic, and we're going to have to re-think our approach in those high-density areas.

Of course, the story's not just about congestion on the ground. It's in the airspace too.

Take the Sunday after last Thanksgiving. The traffic was so heavy, we used our Airspace Flow Program to make sure the airspace didn't get overloaded. Now mind you, we normally use AFPs to deal with thunderstorms, not congestion.

Even so, more than 2,000 flights were delayed. And that was on a day when Mother Nature was in a good mood.

Imagine how bad it would have been if even a few parts of the country got hit with a storm or two?

Even now, days with ordinary traffic levels don't have enough en route capacity when thunderstorms hit. I hate to think what it's going to be like with storm season right around the corner.

Looking out into the future, as I see it, the gridlock won't happen all at once. It'll be gradual, sort of the way a lake freezes. It won't happen in one shot. But eventually, the cold works its way along, paralyzing parts of the lake until the whole thing is iced over.

Without NextGen, some parts of the system will "freeze" first. Soon, other areas will follow. The system will reach its absolute breaking point, and our customers will be the ones who suffer.

It doesn't have to be like that. We need NextGen, and our reform bill is a good way to make it happen. Thank you.

FMI: www.faa.gov, Read The Complete 2007-2020 Forecast (.pdf)