Tue, Sep 14, 2004
Check Out THIS Weather Discussion!
(Forwarded by the Charlotte County, Florida, Emergency
Management Office. You might remember Charlotte County was hardest
hit by Hurricane Charley a month ago. Charlotte County Regional
Airport was virtually wiped from the map)
Update: Tropical Depression #11,
which formed near the Windward Islands Monday, became Tropical
Storm Jeanne Tuesday. Jeanne is moving west-northwest at 10 mph
with maximum sustained winds of almost 60 mph.
The forecast calls for Tropical Storm Jeanne to move generally
to the west-northwest over the next few days (image below), passing
over or just north of Puerto Rico tomorrow afternoon, then
continuing slowly on to the Southeastern Bahamas by the weekend.
Upper level wind shear is forecast to keep Jeanne a Tropical Storm
for the next 2-3 days, but conditions should improve by the weekend
to allow Jeanne to strengthen into a minimal hurricane.
In fact, hurricane warnings have now been posted in both Puerto
Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
Beyond day 5, the forecasts for both Ivan (image below)
and Jeanne become very interesting and unusual. It appears that the
trough pulling Ivan into the Southeast, will not be strong enough
to lift the remnants of the storm out of the region. Long range
models are taking the circulation towards the Carolinas, but then
building high pressure to the north, forcing the remnants to loop
back south and west towards the lower Mississippi Valley. This
could result in catastrophic rainfall over the Deep
South.
Jeanne will appear to be turning north over the weekend, but may
also get cut off by the building ridge of high pressure to the
north, potentially forcing Jeanne westward across Florida next
week. This entire scenario is highly uncertain and will
once again demand close attention.
We will continue to monitor the track of this storm…
(Note: ...and so will we. -- ed.)
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