Thu, Mar 19, 2009
But Manufacturers Remain Cautiously "Bullish"
The 2009 International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders
wrapped up its annual conference in Scottsdale, AZ this week. An
audience of airliner buyers, sellers and lessors heard both Boeing
and Airbus predict that they'll be able to meet jet production
projections for 2009, and deliver a total of 965 planes.
Many financiers dismissed the prediction as unrealistic in the
current credit environment.
Bertrand Grabowski of Germany's DVB Bank, a major European
financier of airplanes, told the Seattle Times the only question is
how much and how soon both Airbus and Boeing will cut
production.
"They will have to do it. It's a matter of fact," he said... a
sentiment echoed by many analysts in attendance.
Even economist Adam Pilarski, of Avitas, had his figurative
fingers crossed when he partially agreed with the manufacturers.
After agreeing that this year's deliveries are safe, and in the
long run the industry will resume its growth, he followed up by
predicting that in 2011, deliveries will "...fall off a cliff. The
crash has to happen and it will be severe."
Pilarski predicts 2011 combined deliveries for Boeing and Airbus
will be down 30 percent from current levels, totalling just 666
planes.
Interestingly, Mark Pearman-Wright -- head of leasing and
investor marketing at Airbus -- acknowledged the discord between
manufacturer prognostifications, and analyst predictions.
"I've noticed the manufacturer mindset is more bullish,"
Pearman-Wright conceded. "It's not so much Airbus versus Boeing.
It's the manufacturers versus the financiers."
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