Despite Official Reports To The Contrary, They Expect More
Delays
It's tough to be a certain American planemaker this
week. With Boeing Integrated Defense Systems still reeling from the
loss of the US Air Force KC-X contract -- and now involved in a
Government Accountability Review of the process that awarded the
deal to Northrop/EADS -- the commercial division of the aerospace
manufacturer is facing some tough talk, and even outright
skepticism, at an industry trade show over its beleaguered 787
Dreamliner program.
The Seattle Times reports several airline executives and
industry analysts attending this week's International Society of
Transport Aircraft Trading (ISTAT) Conference in Orlando, FL spoke
harshly about the state of the troubled airliner, and took Boeing
to task over its reassurances the 787 remains on target for its
first flight in June. Those customers say they've heard it
before.
"The production ramp-up is going to be slower" than previously
announced, said one senior executive with an airplane-leasing
company and Boeing customer. "It was always aggressive. Now it's
not achievable."
All customers interviewed by the Times spoke anonymously, saying
they didn't want to get on Boeing's bad side publicly. Investment
brokers cited their respective company's policies about public
comments.
As ANN reported last week,
Goldman Sachs analyst Richard Safran predicted the looming
announcement of another delay to the 787, citing unnamed sources
close to the program. If true, it would be the third such delay in
the Dreamliner program, which saw the first plane unveiled to the
public in July 2007.
Boeing announced the first six-month delay to Dreamliner
deliveries in October 2007... and while heads at Boeing didn't
necessarily roll, they did bounce, with former 787 program chief
Mike Bair shuffled out of the program, and several executives from
other Boeing areas moving over to the troubled 787 program.
Things seemed to be on track after that, and most 787 customers
accepted the delay with little public grumbling. Sales of the
airliner also continued at a fast pace, with 817 orders taken for
the efficient airliner through December 2007.
In January, however, Boeing announced a second delay, this one
of about three months... and eyebrows raised. At ISTAT this week,
Boeing Marketing VP Randy Tinseth sought to reassure those
customers, saying the program remains on the schedule announced in
January, with first flight by June and entry into service in "early
2009."
Few in the industry believe him.
"Yeah, right," a second senior leasing executive grumbled to the
Times. "There's the official position and then there's the
unofficial position."
Another official, this one an executive at an airline, told the
paper he doesn't expect his company will see any Dreamliners in
2009, despite Boeing's current schedule that shows it will receive
its first 787 in the summer of that year.
The consensus among those interviewed is that Boeing will
deliver no more than 45 787s -- and possibly a lot less -- in 2009,
despite the current Boeing forecast it will roll 109 planes out the
door in that timeframe. Goldman Sachs' Safran predicts 50
deliveries.
Customers also wish Boeing had announced a single, 18-month
delay to the Dreamliner program in October, instead of parsing out
the bad news incrementally. Boeing is currently about a year behind
its original schedule; the company would have looked all-the-more
impressive, they say, if Boeing had then beat its own 18-month
deadline.
One leasing company executive summed up the mood in the field
succinctly. "Boeing didn't learn anything from the A380," he said,
referring to the 22-month delay in deliveries of the superjumbo
airliner.
"Three strikes and you're out," he added. "If what comes out
[later this month] doesn't work, there's no place left to go."