Demand Seen For Larger, More Efficient Aircraft Over The
Next 20 Years
According to Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF),
between 2011 and 2030, carriers in Australia, New Zealand and the
Pacific Islands region will require 736 new passenger and freighter
aircraft (above 100 seats) valued at $98 billion. The
region’s close links to emerging economies are the main
contributor to traffic growth with business and tourism set to grow
steadily. Urbanization and a doubling in the number of mega cities
from two to five in 2030 and a bigger middle class base will also
spur traffic growth. Low Cost Carriers will continue to expand and
their market share of traffic between the region and Asia is
forecast to increase to some 35 per cent by 2030.
Airbus forecasts a regional growth rate of 4.8 per cent per year
up to 2030, matching the world average, but outstripping all other
developed aviation markets such as North America (2.5 per cent,
domestic) and Western Europe (3.5 per cent, inter regional).
The region’s requirement for 736 new passenger and
freighter aircraft includes 468 single aisles, 211 twin aisles, and
57 very large aircraft (VLA). Of these, 731 will be passenger
aircraft, broken down as some 380 for growth, and 349 for
replacing older models with more fuel efficient ones. In 20 years,
the region’s passenger fleet will almost double from some 400
aircraft today to over 780 by 2030.
“More people want to fly. Load-factors will continue to
rise. Add to this higher fuel costs and infrastructure which cannot
keep pace with growing demand, then larger more fuel efficient
aircraft are the only sensible choice, and this is confirmed by our
latest Global Market Forecast,” said John Leahy, Chief
Operating Officer Customers. He said the long term market appetite
for high capacity, high productivity aircraft like the A380 remains
healthy.
Globally, in the next 20 years, Asia Pacific including China and
India will be at the center of the world’s strongest demand
for aircraft (34 per cent) and by 2030, the largest share of
traffic (33 per cent). This concentration of demand, together with
its historical links to Western markets will drive business and
tourism in the region. Traffic growth between Australia, New
Zealand and the Pacific Island’s region and China (6.2 per
cent), India (5.6 per cent) and the rest of Asia (5.7 per cent) is
forecast to be significantly quicker than the world average 4.8 per
cent