Prediction Up Less Than 300 From 2006 Totals

Every year around this time, Aviation Information Resources, Inc. (AIR) releases its airline pilot hiring numbers forecast for the coming year. Recently AIR shared its projections for 2007 with ANN. According to AIR, hiring will remain largely static this year with little change among the individual sectors.

First, a quick review of 2006.

"Airlines reporting to AIR, Inc. last January forecast hiring up to 6,700 pilots in 2006," said Kit Darby, President of AIR, Inc. "The largest hiring increase came from the National airlines which forecast hiring 2,100 of the 6,700 pilots. For the ninth straight year the National carriers dominated the industry, adding 3,233 new pilot jobs to their sector - a increase of 1,133 from what they had originally forecast hiring."

The Major carriers came in second, hiring 2,276 pilots - Southwest Airlines lead that category in hiring with 604 new pilot jobs, followed by Continental with 435, JetBlue with 381, FedEx with 345, and AirTran hiring 226 pilots in ‘06. The Non-Jet Operators, for the first time in five years came in third hiring 918 pilots and the Jet Operators finished fourth with 611 new pilot jobs for 2006.

This year's forecast from AIR (see chart below) reflects the history of US pilot hiring from 2003 through 2006, organized by different career categories: major, national, jet regional, non-jet regional, fractional, upstart, and training. According to its forecast, AIR estimates up to 8,510 new airline pilot positions for 2007.

AIR says the straight math trend for the last 3 years predicts 8,371 new pilot positions in 2007, which could go higher depending on the domestic and international economies, and three other main forces - pilot retirement, airline growth and foreign demand for U.S. pilots.

Included in AIR's estimates is an assumption the FAA (or congress) will increase the mandatory pilot retirement age from 60 to 65. If that happens, AIR says pilot retirement at the majors will decrease over the next five years as existing pilots start working until age 65. This will contribute to a total reduction in retirements over the next five years of about 3,800.

With Airbus and Boeing enjoying near record-breaking order numbers over the past few years there will soon be lots of new planes around. Major passenger and freight airlines currently operate over 4,263 jets. Together, they have orders for new jets totaling 553 -- with options for an additional 1,656 -- to be delivered over the next several years. Roughly 40% percent of these new aircraft will replace existing jets; the rest are for growth and will require additional pilots. Fleet plans are in a state of flux as passenger airlines try to align themselves with current market conditions.

AIR says significant increases in aircraft utilization could create a demand for additional pilots or recalls without new aircraft deliveries.

FMI: www.jet-jobs.com