Long-Term Instability Seen For Light Military Rotorcraft
Sector
The "Light Military" rotorcraft market will see some near-term
growth, but the longer term is far more uncetain, according to a
new study, "The Market for Light Military Rotorcraft," from
Forecast International. The study projects that 1,941 rotorcraft
will be built between 2010 and 2019. The value of this production
is estimated at $23.4 billion in constant 2010 U.S. dollars. The
Forecast International study generally defines a light military
rotorcraft as one with a maximum gross weight of less than 6,804
kilograms (15,000 pounds), though the study does make an occasional
exception to this rule.
File Photo
Yearly production is forecast to steadily rise over the first
five years of the forecast period, from 187 units in 2010 to a peak
of 220 units in 2014. However, starting in 2015, annual production
is forecast to track downward, falling to 181 units by 2019.
According to the study, the near-term growth is largely a
continuation of the expansion that the market has experienced over
the past few years. The light military rotorcraft segment has been
boosted by high acquisition levels on the part of military
operators, particularly the U.S. armed forces, as well as by an
influx of new models that have recently entered service, sometimes
after years of development.
However, Forecast International believes that market growth will
not be sustained indefinitely. Current acquisition programs will
run their course, and few new major procurements of light military
helicopters are in the works.
"Defense spending in the U.S. and much of Europe is under severe
pressure due to competing domestic priorities as well as growing
budget deficits," said Forecast International senior aerospace
analyst Raymond Jaworowski. Meanwhile, the study indicates that
with U.S. combat operations in Iraq and Afghanistan winding down,
further downward pressure on U.S. defense spending can be
expected.
Jaworski feels the decline in the market after 2015 will be
gradual, however, and manufacturers will still be able to find
sales opportunities in the midst of a slowing market. And the good
news for the industry is that civil helicopter build rates will be
rising at the same time that military helicopter production is
forecast to be declining. He says increasing demand in the civil
rotorcraft market will more than offset the slumping military
market.
Manufacturer market share projections contained within the
Forecast International study indicate that Eurocopter will be the
leading manufacturer of light military rotorcraft during the
2010-2019 time period. The European company is expected to rank
first whether the market is measured in units built or in the
monetary value of production. AgustaWestland is projected to be
second in unit production during the forecast timeframe, followed
by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd and Bell.