Strong Demand Seen For New, More Fuel Efficient, Single-Aisle
Airplanes
Boeing thinks that air carriers in Russia and members of the
Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will take delivery of
about 960 new airplanes over the next 20 years at an investment of
$90 billion.
New airplane deliveries in the region will be driven largely by
the need to retire older, less fuel-efficient single-aisle
airplanes and regional jets, as airlines replace them with
new-generation, more fuel-efficient models. "Demand for airplanes
also will be fueled by an increase in the number of people flying
to, from and within Russia and CIS," said Randy Tinseth, vice
president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes, who released
Boeing's 2010 CIS market outlook last week in Moscow. "We expect
passenger traffic for the region to grow at a rate of 4.8 percent
on average."
Tinseth said the growing tendency of both business and personal
travelers to traverse Russia and CIS will create strong demand for
rapid, frequent and reliable coast-to-coast and interregional
transportation. Driven by this demand, almost 60 percent of the new
deliveries over the next 20 years will be single-aisle airplanes.
Taking retirements of old airplanes into account, the CIS fleet
will grow from 1,150 airplanes today to about 1,300 airplanes by
2029.
Boeing forecasts that single-aisle airplanes will grow from 54
percent of the total CIS fleet today to 63 percent of the fleet by
2029. Airlines are increasingly focusing on airplane age as
fuel-thirsty, older airplanes weigh increasingly on earnings.
Increased attention to aviation's impact on global climate change
also will be a factor in selecting airplanes that produce lower
carbon emissions.
Twin-aisle fleets will evolve in the region as airlines continue
to expand international point-to-point services to a wider range of
airport pairs and frequencies. Small- and mid-sized twin-aisle
airplanes will grow to represent 17 percent of the CIS fleet by
2029.
Within the CIS market, Boeing sees a demand for 160 new,
efficient twin-aisle airplanes such as the 787 Dreamliner.
Twin-aisles will account for 17 percent of total airplane demand in
the region over 20 years. Large airplanes (747-size and larger)
will not see significant demand in CIS, accounting for only three
percent of all deliveries over the next 20 years. Approximately 30
large airplanes, all freighters, are projected for CIS through
2020.
Boeing also forecasts demand for 200 regional jets in the CIS --
more than 10 percent of the projected world demand. This category
will account for 21 percent of the total deliveries of new
aircraft. These aircraft will be used to accommodate traffic growth
to smaller secondary markets within the region and to replace older
aircraft