Mon, Apr 13, 2009
Foley Believes Largest Market Recovers First
When the business aviation market finally recovers, the first
sparks of life for the beleaguered industry will appear in the
United States... at least, that's the opinion of one analyst.
"This is good news since this region has always been the
industry's biggest market, accounting for 64% of the active
worldwide business jet fleet," says Brian Foley Associates (BRiFO)
President Brian Foley.
Foley cites evidence the US recession and bizav slowdown began
in 2007... well before the rest of the world entered the downturn.
As such a first-in, first-out scenario will occur with the US
recovering before other regions. Foley believes this will be aided
by the sizeable fiscal and monetary stimulus which outspends other
parts of the world.
Since business jets are priced in dollars, any early
international demand would be meaningfully tempered by a dollar
that is now 20% higher than a year ago.
For decades North America accounted for around 70% of worldwide
deliveries. With a weakened US economy, plunging dollar and surging
non-North American stock markets this number decreased to less than
50% for the past 2 years.
"Once an eventual upturn takes hold it will again account for
over half of all deliveries," states a BRiFO release. "Even if the
likes of a China or India were to recover sooner these types of
regions account for only a sliver of the overall business jet
market and would not provide a measurable boost."
Before a comeback certain indicators must first begin to show
signs of improvement including lower used aircraft inventories and
higher utilization, GDP, corporate profits, stock market levels and
credit availability.
Even then the pace of recovery will be subdued by sizeable
negative wealth affects, lingering credit constraints and remnants
of Capitol Hill jet bashing, Foley warns.
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