AirInsight Report Summarizes Planned Aircraft Programs
In its just-released report "The Coming Aerospace Squeeze - a
Review of Commercial Aircraft Programs in Brazil, Canada, China,
Japan and Russia," AirInsight summarizes current and planned
aircraft programs in each of these countries and the potential
impact of those programs on the commercial aerospace market.
Authored by noted analysts Ernest S. Arvai, Scott Hamilton and
Addison Schonland, the report provides insight into emerging
programs ranging from the five countries, including China's COMAC
C919, Japan's Kawasaki YPX, Canada's CSeries and Russia's UAC
MS-21, and their potential impact on Boeing and Airbus. The 57-page
study also examines the new regional jet programs: China's ARJ21,
Japan's MRJ and Russia's Superjet, and the impacts faced by the
four current players, Airbus Boeing, Embraer, and Bombardier, to
meet this new competition.
Among the conclusions in the study:
- Airbus and Boeing currently have about an 88% market share in
the 100- to 200-seat single-aisle market segment. This market share
could be cut in half to about 40% if market forecasts offered by
the emerging competitors bear any relationship to reality.
- Technology transfers by the current Big 4-Airbus, Boeing,
Bombardier and Embraer - are enabling these new competitors.
- Airbus and Boeing will likely choose to re-engine their
stalwart A320 and 737 families as an interim solution to meeting
the new competition, while continuing to develop
advanced-technology replacement for introduction in the 2020
decade.
- The sub-70 seat regional jet market is rapidly losing
attractiveness. Bombardier is considering larger turboprops and
Mitsubishi is considering a larger version of its MRJ.
- Embraer faces a tough decision about what to do with its E-Jet
series, which is still relatively new to market, to meet the
competition from Bombardier's CSeries.
"Boeing and Airbus are feeding the hand that will come back to
bite them," said co-author Ernest S. Arvai, of The Arvai Group,
Inc., who indicated that "technology transfer to emerging aerospace
countries is enabling new competitors who will each take a piece of
the market. Our projections indicate that the 100-200 seat market
shared by Airbus and Boeing with an 88% market share today could
see that share fall to nearly 40% if all of the new competitors are
successful and achieve their market goals. While that is unlikely,
a significant market share shift will occur over the next two
decades, and additional industry capacity will have an impact on
the supply/demand balance, pricing and margins."
"New entrants for the 150-seat market segment in China, Russia
and potentially Japan will have an impact on Airbus and Boeing,"
said co-author Scott Hamilton of Leeham Co. LLC. "While we don't
expect these programs to be particularly successful outside the
home markets, these domestic sales will significantly eat into the
market shares of Airbus and Boeing. To compete effectively, Airbus
and Boeing will need to re-engine their current models around 2015,
and introduce break-through technology in the 2020-2024 time frame
to leap-frog these emerging competitors."
"For the first time, a new generation of engine technology will
be introduced by firms other than Airbus or Boeing, as the geared
turbofan from Pratt & Whitney will launch with the Bombardier
CSeries. While aerodynamics and materials have an impact on
performance, engine technology is the primary driver for economic
improvements, and the new international competitors will for the
first time have the most efficient airplanes," said co-author
Addison Schonland of Innovation Analysis Group.
The report examines a number of new programs in detail,
including the E-Jets and future developments from Embraer, the
CRJ-1000 and CSeries from Bombardier, the ARJ-21 and C919 from
China, Mitsubishi MRJ and Kawasaki YPX from Japan and the Sukhoi
Superjet 100 and UAC MS-21 from Russia.
FMI: www.iag-inc.com/airinsight/