Foley Sees Potential In Business Jet Deliveries, But No Sure Thing | Aero-News Network
Aero-News Network
RSS icon RSS feed
podcast icon MP3 podcast
Subscribe Aero-News e-mail Newsletter Subscribe

Airborne Unlimited -- Most Recent Daily Episodes

Episode Date

Airborne-Monday

Airborne-Tuesday

Airborne-Wednesday Airborne-Thursday

Airborne-Friday

Airborne On YouTube

Airborne-Unlimited-04.29.24

Airborne-NextGen-04.30.24

Airborne-Unlimited-05.01.24 Airborne-AffordableFlyers--05.02.24

Airborne-Unlimited-05.03.24

Wed, Oct 12, 2011

Foley Sees Potential In Business Jet Deliveries, But No Sure Thing

To Avoid Business Jet Delivery Purgatory, Economic Growth, Confidence Are Musts

What if general aviation unit deliveries were to stay flat into an extended future? Aviation Analyst Bryan Foley sees things this way:  "Deliveries will trend modestly upward; we still believe that. But that projection assumes that the economy and buyer confidence in general will gradually strengthen.  Both are necessary catalysts for sales.  If they don't improve -- and it probably will take both of them -- an alternative scenario must be considered in which deliveries could stay flat into the foreseeable future."

Foley's concern is not without precedent.  He noted that for the ten-year period 1986-1995, business jet deliveries stayed in a very tight range which could also be called flat.  This is anomalous in that one would normally expect deliveries to follow a classical sine-wave business cycle -- typically five years trending up followed by five years trending down, and with the ups and downs smooth as opposed to sharp.

"We are standing by our published outlook," Foley said.  "We've predicted around 700 business jet deliveries in 2011, growing to a peak of over 1100 in 2016, then diminishing a bit in typical, cyclical fashion.   That's our basic growth model, and we see no cause to walk away from it.  At the same time, since it's based on assumptions that might conceivably go another way (like the economy), we've added a contingency prediction that's more pessimistic. In this model, deliveries could stay basically flat-lined for the foreseeable future at around 850 units per year.  But that would happen only if the economic doldrums continue, exacerbated by confidence-sapping threats of tax-law changes, restrictive aircraft financing, user fees, anti-bizjet rhetoric and such. It would probably take a confluence of all these dire things acting simultaneously.  Otherwise, the odds still favor the growth model."

But 2011 should be the low-water mark for deliveries in any event, whether there's a healthy burst of recovery or a double-dip recession with GDP growth. "The biggest risk may well be psychological uncertainty; that general-aviation deliveries will languish stubbornly for years -- a kind of delivery purgatory," Foley says, adding "Who wants that?"

FMI: www.brifo.com

Advertisement

More News

ANN's Daily Aero-Linx (05.02.24)

Aero Linx: Model Aeronautical Association of Australia MAAA clubs are about fun flying, camaraderie and community. For over 75 years, the MAAA has been Australia’s largest fl>[...]

ANN's Daily Aero-Term (05.02.24): Touchdown Zone Lighting

Touchdown Zone Lighting Two rows of transverse light bars located symmetrically about the runway centerline normally at 100 foot intervals. The basic system extends 3,000 feet alon>[...]

Aero-News: Quote of the Day (05.02.24)

“Discovery and innovation are central to our mission at Virgin Galactic. We’re excited to build on our successful record of facilitating scientific experiments in subor>[...]

ANN FAQ: Contributing To Aero-TV

How To Get A Story On Aero-TV News/Feature Programming How do I submit a story idea or lead to Aero-TV? If you would like to submit a story idea or lead, please contact Jim Campbel>[...]

NTSB Final Report: Cirrus Design Corp SR20

Student Pilot Reported That During Rotation, “All Of A Sudden The Back Of The Plane Kicked To The Right..." Analysis: The student pilot reported that during rotation, “>[...]

blog comments powered by Disqus



Advertisement

Advertisement

Podcasts

Advertisement

© 2007 - 2024 Web Development & Design by Pauli Systems, LC