Peak Year Of 2008 Was A "Perfect Storm" For The Industry

In its proprietary forecast of worldwide deliveries of new business jets, market analysts Brian Foley Associates do not anticipate the industry topping 2008 levels within their 10 year forecast horizon. 

Brian Foley

 "A confluence of factors came together to create last year's record breaking 1313 aircraft deliveries" according to President Brian Foley.   "The probability of each major market driver of business jet sales simultaneously peaking again seems remote."

In evaluating the factors which created the phenomenal 2003-2008 business jet delivery upturn, nearly everything that could possibly go right for new sales materialized according to Foley.  Worldwide stock market indices set new highs, Gross Domestic Product was strong with some regions registering double-digit figures and corporate profits and personal wealth were growing and abundant.  In addition, the value of the dollar plummeted which stimulated international markets to buy dollar-denominated business jets in great numbers.

Foley also cites that around 50% of all business jet purchases are financed.  "The easy credit environment featuring low interest rates, zero down payments and extended terms just won't exist any time soon which will completely eliminate a stratum of buyers in the next upturn.  This will be compounded by negative Capitol Hill business jet rhetoric which will dampen enthusiasm in the world's largest market (the US) for the next few years."

File Photo

"Since aircraft deliveries lag sales by a year or two, the perfect sales environment would have to materialize again within the next 8 years to be captured in our multi-engine delivery forecast through 2018.  That seems unlikely in this environment following a worldwide recession," Foley said. "Analogous to the airline industry, as the relatively young business jet industry matures it will eventually discover that there's a finite market for business jets and that every upturn will not necessarily have to be bigger than the last."

FMI: www.BRiFO.com