Forecast International Sees Dynamic Growth for RJ Production

In its latest study, "The World Market for Regional/Commuter Transport Aircraft," Forecast International projects that a total of 3,728 regional aircraft will be produced in the 10-year period 2004 to 2013. The value of this production, in constant 2004 U.S. dollars, is estimated at $84.4 billion. The forecast production total includes both regional jets and regional turboprops; specifically, 3,041 regional jets are forecast, plus 687 turboprops.

In the new study, Forecast International predicts that 387 regional aircraft will be built in 2004. Annual production is expected to drop to 371 units in 2005, and then fluctuate within a range of 360-380 units for the remainder of the forecast timeframe. Within these numbers, however, Forecast International expects that the mix of regional aircraft built each year will include a progressively higher proportion of larger-capacity aircraft. Thus, the number of delivered seats will rise significantly over the course of the next 10 years.

Production of 70-120 passenger regional jets is expected to be particularly dynamic, both during the 10-year forecast period and (perhaps even more so) beyond. This class of regional aircraft has seen the rapid proliferation of several new models. Bombardier and Embraer, for instance, have both recently introduced new aircraft of at least 90-passenger capacities: Bombardier with the 90-seat CRJ 900 and Embraer with the 94-108 seat 190 and the 106-118 passenger 195.

Even the large commercial transport manufacturers have gotten into the act. Boeing is currently producing the 717-200, while Airbus has begun production of the A318. Both in terms of operating characteristics and in terms of the type of aircraft with which they compete for sales, the 717-200 and the A318 are arguably regional aircraft.

Bombardier also recently announced plans to develop an all-new, 100-plus passenger aircraft family called the CSeries. The CSeries represents an attempt by Bombardier to not only expand its product line into the important 100-120 passenger regional jet market but also, with the proposed 130-135 CSeries model, to directly compete with such aircraft as the Airbus A319 and the Boeing 737-600/700.

Meanwhile, regional turboprops have been losing the battle for sales to regional jets. Various market forces are working against turboprops. According to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski, "Whether right or wrong, the perception is widespread that travelers want to fly in jets rather than turboprops."

The Forecast International study projects that the leaders in the regional aircraft market will be Embraer and Bombardier. Embraer is forecast to produce 1,426 regional jets, a market share of 38.3 percent. Bombardier, which builds both jets and turboprops for the regional market, is projected to build 1,210 regional aircraft, a share of 32.5 percent. No other company is projected to have a unit production share exceeding 10 percent.

When the market is measured in value of production in constant dollars, Embraer again leads the way with forecast production value of $32.7 billion, a market share of 38.8 percent. Bombardier production is estimated at $30 billion, a 35.6 percent share.

FMI: www.forecast1.com