Fri, Sep 23, 2011
Forecast International Says Recession 'Killed Demand' For
Piston Helicopters
In its new study titled “The Market for Light Commercial
Rotorcraft 2011-2020,” Forecast International projects that
light commercial helicopter manufacturers will ship just under
16,860 rotorcraft worth approximately $58.8 billion during the next
10 years. This forecast covers light commercial helicopters with
maximum gross weights under 15,000 pounds.
The Connecticut-based market research firm forecast that this
total will include production of more than 5,900 piston-powered and
nearly 10,900 turbine-powered rotorcraft. Manufacturers
reported stabilization in the market during 2010, but annual
production is forecast to remain under 1,300 units through
2012. The forecast assumes that economic growth in Europe and
the United States, the two primary markets for rotorcraft, will be
anemic through 2011 and most of 2012. Improved economic
conditions thereafter will allow increased production at major
manufacturers as demand recovers to its pre-recession level over
the long term.
“The recession killed demand for piston helicopters, but
the turbine market held up relatively well in 2009 and 2010,”
notes Forecast International aerospace analyst Douglas Royce. "It
is still a tough market for manufacturers, but we expect to see
substantial improvement by the end of 2012.”
Production of piston-powered helicopters will account for about
35 percent of the total number of units shipped in the light
commercial rotorcraft market over the period 2011-2020. The value
of this production will reach over $2.2 billion, only about 4
percent of the value of the light commercial rotorcraft market
overall. The value of production of turbine-powered
rotorcraft is forecast to total $56.6 billion over this
timeframe. The turbine market will thus account for about 96
percent of the value of production of light commercial rotorcraft
during the forecast period.
Manufacturers are forecast to ship 5,959 single-engine turbine
helicopters and 4,973 twins. The value of production for the
single-engine turbine market is projected to be $14.6
billion. The value of production of twins is projected to
reach $42 billion. The high list prices of twins result in a
far higher value of production even though they are produced in
lower numbers. Thus, almost 75 percent of the value of
production in the turbine segment will come from production of
twin-engine rotorcraft.
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