BizAv Expected To Grow Most, VLJs Will Fly More Than Traditional Turbojets

The following is the FAA forecast for fleet and hours flown for single-engine piston aircraft, multi-engine piston, turboprops, turbojets, rotorcraft (piston, turbine), sport, experimental and other (glider, balloon). The FAA forecasts "active aircraft", not total aircraft. An active aircraft is one that has flown at least one hour during the year.

The FAA uses estimates of fleet size, hours flown and, utilization from the General Aviation and Air Taxi Activity and Avionics Survey (GA Survey) as baseline figures upon which assumed growth rates can be applied. This survey has been conducted annually since 1977. As noted previously, beginning with the CY2004 Survey there were significant improvements to the survey methodology. These improvements included conducting 100 percent samples for turboprops and turbojets, all rotorcraft, all aircraft in Alaska and all aircraft operating on-demand under Part 135.

The changes resulted in the sample size nearly doubling. At the same time the survey methodology changed, large changes in both the number of aircraft and hours in many categories occurred. It is unclear whether the large changes mentioned above are due to the methodological changes described. FAA is assuming that the changes observed in the past two years of the Survey are in fact indicative of changes in the underlying population.

As such, we believe that because of the methodological improvements, current estimates from the GA Survey are superior to those in the past and are used as the basis for our forecast. Because the Survey is on a calendar year basis, the 2005 statistics are the latest available. Figures for 2006 are estimated based on other activity indicators and the forecasts of activity begin in 2007 and continue through 2020.

As the demand for business jets has grown over the past several years, the current forecast assumes that business use of general aviation aircraft will expand at a more rapid pace than that for personal/sport use. The business/corporate side of general aviation should continue to benefit from a growing market for new microjets. In addition, corporate safety/security concerns for corporate staff, combined with increased processing times at some US airports have made fractional, corporate, and on-demand charter flights practical alternatives to travel on commercial flights.

The active general aviation fleet is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 1.4 percent over the 14-year forecast period, growing from an estimated 226,422 in 2006 to 274,914 aircraft in 2020. The more expensive and sophisticated turbine-powered fleet (including rotorcraft) is projected to grow at an average of 3.6 percent a year over the 14-year forecast period with the turbine jet fleet increasing at 6.0 percent per year.

At the October 2006 TRB/FAA workshop, industry experts suggested the market for new microjets could add 500 aircraft a year to the active fleet by 2010. The relatively inexpensive twin-engine microjets (priced between $1 and $2 million) are believed by many to have the potential to redefine the business jet segment by expanding business jet flying and offering performance that could support a true ondemand air-taxi business service. This year’s forecast assumes that microjets will begin to enter the active fleet in 2007 (350 aircraft) and grow by 400 to 500 aircraft a year after that, reaching 6,300 aircraft by 2020.

The number of piston-powered aircraft (including rotorcraft) is projected to increase from 170,967 in 2006 to 181,750 in 2020, an average increase of 0.4 percent yearly. Although piston rotorcraft are projected to increase rapidly (5.7 percent per year) they are a relatively small component of this segment of general aviation aircraft. Single-engine and multi-engine fixed-wing piston aircraft, which are much more numerous, are projected to grow at much slower rates (0.3 and -0.2 percent respectively) leading to the low growth of the piston-powered fleet. In addition, it is assumed that relatively inexpensive microjets and new light sport aircraft could erode the replacement market for traditional piston aircraft at the high and low ends of the market respectively.

Starting in 2005, a new category of aircraft (previously not included in the FAA's aircraft registry counts) was created: "light sport" aircraft. The forecast assumes registration of 5,600 aircraft over a 5-year period beginning in 2006 including both newly built aircraft and conversions from ultralight trainers. This new aircraft category is projected to total roughly 13,200 in 2020.

The number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase by 3.4 percent yearly over the 14-year forecast period. Much of the increase reflects increased flying by business and corporate aircraft as well as steady if relatively small annual percentage increases in utilization rates for piston aircraft. Hours flown by turbine aircraft (including rotorcraft) are forecast to increase 6.1 percent yearly over the forecast period, compared with 1.3 percent for piston-powered aircraft. Jet aircraft are forecast to account for most of the increase, with hours flown expanding at an average annual rate of 9.4 percent over the 14 years. The large increases in jet hours result from the introduction of microjets, as well as increases in the fractional ownership fleet and its activity levels. Fractional ownership aircraft fly about 1,200 hours annually compared to roughly 350 hours for all business jets in all applications.

Very light jets (VLJs) are expected to function much differently than traditional turbojets. Because of this, FAA has made separate assumptions for traditional turbojets and VLJs. The assumptions underlying the very light jet (VLJ) forecast are vital for both fleet and hours flown. Assumptions are made for the entire VLJ fleet and also for the distribution of that fleet among air taxi use, private use and fractional use. For the various uses, assumptions are made about utilization rates which, along with fleet sizes, determine hours flown. Utilization rates for VLJs will vary by mission. VLJ air taxis are expected to average approximately 1,500 hours per year, fractionals 1,200 and private use 350. This results in an expected utilization rate for all VLJs in 2020 of 1,067 hours. Traditional (non-VLJ) turbojets are expected to average approximately 407 hours per year by 2020, since VLJs are expected to have a greater share of their use in on-demand air taxi than the traditional turbojets.

The number of active general aviation pilots (excluding air transport pilots) is projected to be 506,097 in 2020, an increase of almost 51,000 (up 0.8 percent yearly) over the forecast period. Commercial pilots are projected to increase from 117,610 in 2006 to 130,590 in 2020, an average annual increase of 0.8 percent. The number of student pilots increase from 84,866 in 2006 to 100,181 in 2020, an average annual rate of 1.2 percent. In addition, FAA is projecting that 16,252 new sport pilots will be certified during the forecast period. As of December 31, 2006, the number of sport pilot certificates issued was 939, reflecting a growing interest in this new "entry level" pilot certificate that was only created in 2005. The number of private pilots is projected to total 219,655 in 2020, just 422 higher than the total in 2006.

FMI: Read The Complete 2007-2020 Forecast (.pdf)