We've been hearing about it for years... a pilot shortage... a
critical one, at that. For many in the aviation community, it
sounded like good news... at least if you were on the bottom rungs
of the pilot hiring ladder and working desperately to climb your
way up. However; after engaging in discussions throughout the
industry over the last year and in attending a particularly pointed
(and very well-organized) presentation at the FAA Forecast
Conference some months ago, ANN and Aero-TV are left with the
troubling impression that aviation has a BIG problem on its
hands.
The session devoted to discussing the Pilot Supply was, as
indicated earlier, exceptionally produced and wholly on target. the
session was presented by Moderator Peter J. Wolfe, Executive
Director, Professional Aviation Board of Certification (PABC), and
augmented by presentations delivered by Kit Darby, President, AIR,
Inc, Captain Paul Rice, First Vice President, Air Line Pilots
Association, International, Ron Levy, University Aviation
Association, John Dixon, Director of Pilot Recruitment for American
Eagle.
The first presentation, and one that set quite a trend for the
session, was delivered by Kit Darby. Kit Darby is the president of
Aviation Information Resources (AIR, Inc.). Currently a B767
captain with United Airlines, Mr. Darby has interviewed 20 times
with 16 different airlines and worked with three majors and one
national airline since 1978. He has a BS in Aeronautical Studies
from Embry-Riddle AU. Kit is coauthor of the Simulator Flying
Guide, Beginners' Guide to Becoming a Career Pilot, the World Wide
Pilot Supply Report, World Wide Jet Transport Simulator Study and
the new Pilot Career Guide. Kit's flight experience includes 15,000
hours total time, 10,000 hours jet time. He has an ATP with B737,
B727, DC-8, and B767 type ratings, flight/instrument and engineer
instructor, commercial instrument helicopter pilot, plus military
instructor/instrument examiner ratings in two helicopters and five
fixed-wing multi-engine aircraft.
Darby started his discussion with some startling statistics...
US air-fleets will grow from 4,133 AC to 7,402 AC by 2025 –
which represents nearly almost 65% growth. That means there will be
7,402 new A/C which require (on average) some 12 pilots per
airframe/AC which leaves us with a need for 88,824 new pilots. No
one needs to tell you that this is a LOT of pilots... who not only
have to be trained but get time and experience in the system to be
able to handle the new generation of airliners coming our way (or
keep the old ones flying, for that matter).
Darby also clued everyone in on the fact that A/C utilization is
approximately 8.26 hours/day in the US, alone, and that A/C
utilization expected to increase by 8% annually, over the next 20
years. Add that to the fact that US pilot productivity is nearing
its maximum capabilities and you see why Darby was conducting the
equivalent of yelling "Fire" in a crowded room. And the situation,
overseas is far more contentious.
So... worried yet? You should be. The situation is troublesome,
answers are few and aviation safety can only be negatively impacted
if the situation is not dealt with. Not sure about that? Well...
load up Part One of our series on Understanding the Pilot Shortage
and see if you don't agree that this is an issue that needs urgent
attention.
E-I-C Note: This is the first in an
extensive series on this topic... each of which will be presented
every Monday (barring special programming requirements for breaking
news or special event coverage) until completed...
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