Let The Prognostifications Begin!

by ANN Managing Editor Rob Finfrock

The staff of ANN has looked into our crystal balls, and brushed up on our tarot-reading techniques, to determine our best guesses to what we consider the 10 Unanswered Questions of 2007, as we face the new year. Hopefully, the new year will bring some much-needed answers...

1) Will Bobby Be Better Than Blakey?

Considered all-but a shoe-in for the lead role at the FAA, Acting (at this writing) Administrator Robert Sturgell brings considerable experience at the agency, and the NTSB, to the table -- as well as years of experience as both a military and civilian pilot.

That simple fact alone raises Sturgell above most of his predecessors -- including his former boss, Marion Blakey -- in the hearts and minds of many GA pilots... but even with a seemingly reassuring background, where will Sturgell's loyalities on issues such as user fees ultimately lie?

And, with a new person at the top... will the FAA's icy relationship with much of the general aviation community start to thaw?

2) Will 2007's Record Commercial Airliner Orders Hold Up In A Declining Market?

No doubt about it, 2007 was a watershed year for manufacturers of commercial airliners... the likes of which we may not see again in our lifetimes. As Boeing and Airbus continue to tally their orders, it appears all-but-certain the two manufacturing behemoths will combine for some 2,600 sales on the year, many from emerging markets in the Middle East and Asia.

Both planemakers are assured busy production lines well into 2015 -- or, are they? After all, the news of late concerning commercial airlines revolves around ever-escalating fuel prices... shrinking, not growing, capacity... steadfast concerns about airport security... and a declining economy, both in the US and abroad.

What will happen to all those orders, if/when airlines realize they don't need all those planes? It's a chilling prospect... and one nobody in Seattle or Toulouse wishes to contemplate. But the cold hand of reality may be just around the corner...

3) Will Cessna's China Choice Alienate Its Customers?

Alas, many would argue it already has. The news that Cessna -- that most 'American Pie' of planemakers -- will outsource production of its upcoming SkyCatcher LSA to communist China was met with approving nods by the economics-minded, as the best option for keeping production costs of the (relatively) low-price plane in check. Many others, though, slapped their foreheads at the announcement -- some, in outrage.

At best, Cessna's news was ill-timed... coming at the end of a year filled with stories in the general media of substandard Chinese-made products flooding the US market, and in some cases even causing fatalities.

While it's still the mainstay of many Americans' lifestyles, the "Made In China" label carries an undeniable stigma right now, one Cessna will be hard-pressed to combat. ANN has already heard from several SkyCatcher depositors -- and a few Cessna dealers -- disillusioned with the decision.

Many SkyCatcher deposit holders want to know when Cessna actually decided to source the SkyCatcher in China -- namely, had the decision already been made when Cessna began accepting orders at AirVenture 2007? We may have inadvertently hit the mark when we postulated at the SkyCatcher's July 2007 release, "though the decision has likely already been made, Cessna representatives told ANN that piece of information isn't quite ready for public consumption."

And then there are the dealers -- the ones tasked with buying a certain number of SkyCatchers each year, and then selling the decision, and the plane, to a now less-than-enthusiastic customer base. The flight training market -- the SkyCatcher's primary reason for existence -- may also be impacted... as newcomer student pilots express concern over flying a "Chinese" plane.

In the worst-case scenario, Cessna sets itself up for a fall in a number of respects. While technically an economic ally with the Western world, China remains openly militant in some regards -- not the least of which are its ties to such hostile countries as North Korea and Iran, and its test last year of a satellite-killer missile. If China turns hostile, Cessna will lose its sole manufacturing base for the plane... though, admittedly, loss of the SkyCatcher would be the least of our problems at that point.

Of more immediate concern, is China's proclivity for commandeering outside engineering enterprises. As an example, ask anyone involved in McDonnell Douglas' foray into China in the 1970s, who now questions the originality of China's "homegrown" ARJ-21 regional jet -- that shares more than a fraternal resemblance to the MD-82s and MD-90s China once produced for that now-defunct planemaker. And then there are the numerous reports of human rights violations within that country's manufacturing community, as well as the rampant corruption often seen as once-oppressive regimes attempt to commercialize... which may well put the occasional labor dispute in Wichita or Independence to shame.

Don't get me wrong -- if there's a company that can overcome these grumblings, it's Cessna. But there's a reason the reputed Chinese axiom "may you live in interesting times" is considered a curse.

4) Is The Gas-Fueled Piston Engine Dead?

Yeah, I know. This question has been asked and asked again, ad nauseum, seemingly since the modern internal combustion engine first came into being in the late 1800s. But now more than ever, there's reason to believe the conventional piston powerplant under the cowling of your Cessna, Mooney, Piper, et al may be a dinosaur in five years. And you'll have the dinosaurs to thank... specifically, the ones that died millions of years ago.

As global oil supplies appear to dwindle -- and the cost of fuel continues to climb -- more and more manufacturers are looking to engines that can operate on diesel fuel, kerosene, or Jet-A. For the intent of this discussion, the three fuel-types are interchangable... as each can be burned by the latest generation of ostensibly "diesel" powerplants from companies like Thielert and SMA, and are only variations on a theme.

While diesel offers a decided advantage in efficiency over 100LL avgas, it's how the fuel is produced that is of most interest. It costs less, and requires less energy and infrastructure, to deliver aviation-grade diesel and kerosene to the customer, than it does avgas. The fallout from this reality can already be seen in developing countries and Europe, where it's easier to find Jet-A than it is 100LL -- the opposite of most FBOs in the US.

Diamond led the way toward diesel-powered GA planes with its DA42 Twin Star; this year, Cessna took the plunge as well, offering the from-the-factory, Thielert Centurion 2.0-equipped Skyhawk 172 TD. Cessna will almost assuredly NOT be the last manufacturer to do so.

Yes, diesel-type fuels are also heavier, as are the engines... negating some of the efficiency advantage through a loss in useful load. There are also big pollution questions to be answered, as more and more diesels -- which are inherently "dirtier" than gasoline-fueled engines -- come online. Will those issues be enough to stem the apparent rising tide of diesel-fueled planes? Time will tell... but I wouldn't bet on it...

5) Is The 'VLJ Revolution' Faltering?

Some will automatically read that question as, "Is Eclipse faltering?" Perhaps that's accurate, to a point, as the Albuquerque-based planemaker more-or-less created the very-light-jet category... and, had more than its share of problems in 2007. But there are additional signs the prospect of swarms of VLJs ever "darkening the skies" is a long time off... and may, in fact, wind up being little more than an optimistic dream.

2007 saw the seemingly-abrupt decline of one aspiring VLJ-maker: Denver-based Aviation Technologies Group, which planned to offer the racy, fighter-inspired Javelin two-seater. At this writing, ATG remains technically in business... though company officials admit the end is nigh, unless a miracle (i.e., a badly-needed cash infusion) occurs.

Across the field at Centennial Airport, Adam Aircraft continues to push its A700 through certification testing at a measured pace -- though it's worth noting Adam received TIA approval in December -- and the company cautiously forecasts earning its TC sometime in 2008.

Things appear to be in pretty good shape, so far, for three emerging VLJ programs. Embraer has met its development targets to date for the Phenom 100 and 300, and two of the smaller Phenom 100s are already flying. Honda is slowly developing the infrastructure to produce, market and support its upcoming HondaJet, expected to enter service in 2010. Piper continues to make headway in bringing the single-engine PiperJet to market. The real test for all three programs, however, will come when certification trials begin -- meaning the verdict is still out.

That leaves Cessna, and Eclipse -- the two most successful companies to date in the VLJ segment, and the only two so far to earn FAA type-and-production certifications. (Cessna stresses the Mustang is an "entry-level" jet, not a VLJ, but that's splitting hairs.)

Each company took profoundly different approaches in building its planes. With years of producing Citation jets under its belt, Cessna took a deliberately cautious path with the Mustang... and, so far, the planemaker looks particularly wise in doing so, as Eclipse struggles to reach its lofty, volume-driven production goals (and even loftier initial promises) and continues to develop its reworked Avio NG system.

The good news for Eclipse is things appear to be looking up as it enters 2008, with production rates ramping up, FIKI testing underway and FAA certification for the first phase of Avio NG in hand. Concerns about future funding also appear to be answered, at least for now. (I've been to Eclipse HQ recently, and I saw no down faces in the offices, or on the production line.)

Being able to produce a large number of finished VLJs isn't the only issue at play here, though; there's also the question of whether there are enough customers to justify the high production numbers.

Eclipse replies, unequivocally, yes... and points to a 2,700-strong order book as proof (Cessna, by comparison, claims around 400 orders for the Mustang). A significant chunk of the Eclipse figure is tied to one customer, though: air taxi provider DayJet, which formally launched its "per-seat, on demand" operation last October. It's too soon to tell if DayJet will ever need all those planes; early results appear mixed, with DayJet CEO Ed Iacobucci telling ANN trends in DayJet's first month of operation were "not below our lowest expectations, nor are they above our highest.... we're pretty comfortably snuggled in the middle." The carrier recently expanded its operations to 28 new cities... roughly one destination for each plane in DayJet's current fleet.

As the year 2007 came to a close, there were approximately 100 very-light-jets -- give or take a handful -- in customers' hands, throughout the world. While certainly impressive, that's hardly a "sky-darkening" number... more like a typical hour at JFK International.

Time will tell whether the market will bear significant increases to that number... or, if the new breed of single-engine "personal jets" will rush in to fill at least some of the promises initially made of their larger VLJ brethren. While we many not see all the answers to those questions come in 2008, the year should give us all some idea as to which way the winds are blowing. Stay tuned...

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