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Mon, Jun 27, 2016

Barnstorming: Innovation, Disruption and Changing the Game

Getting A Running Start On Recreating the Aviation Industry

News/Commentary/Analysis by Jim Campbell ANN CEO/Editor-In-Chief

One of the most active discussion topics I’ve engaged in, of late, is just what individual game-changing steps or developments might take place that could help to jump-start this industry towards a new and sustainable future.

I’ve oft counseled that the true enemy of aviation is the phrase, “Well, that’s the way we’ve always done it…” and that in order to survive long into the future, that we need to make a clean break with the past and build a whole new aviation industry to handle the requirements and interests of the bold new world that has sprung up around us.

We need to be radical… not conservative. Plainly put; the world that aviation used to thrive in, no longer exists… and we need to live in the world we have… no matter how much we long for the past.

While I’m working on things that I think can create a fair amount of disruption, I wanted to start a dialogue about a few potential ideas and concepts that might contribute to an evolutionary process that can eventually be compounded, step by step, to create the full-blown revolution we need to build a sustainable Aero-Verse.

Here are a few of the concepts that appear to have received some significant interest and enjoyed some positive discussion…

We desperately need a new generation of aircraft engines designed to take advantage of modern production technologies, utilizing new metallurgical and ignition/system monitoring technologies (FADEC, etc…), multi-fuel capable, and available as a family of powerplants in useful ranges such as 100-150HP/180-250HP/300HP+, as well as being manufactureable in reasonable production lots at significant savings. Such a development could be a serious game-changer. An industry supported XPRIZE type program ($5-10 Million) could be put together to drive interest and attract powerplant designers who meet much-needed criteria to produce such a powerplant package. There is an extraordinary amount of engine development going on in a number of transportation fields right now that have the kind of expertise necessary to field proposals that could build an engine that could seriously contribute to GA progress. And new computer modeling and design technologies can be used aggressively to hasten these processes. Both avionics and airframe technologies have seen great progress in the last few years (especially avionics), but powerplant technological development is moribund…

The GA world needs to get itself out from under the foot of the highly bureaucratic FAA. And… get this, there is already a model by which this might be accomplished. The ASTM program that pioneered the use of Industry Consensus Standards for the LSA community was a good start, and while the FAA has stepped in and mucked it up a great deal, there was progress made under this system that could not have occurred under the old Part 23 regs (or, apparently under the New Part 23, we’re told). So… how about building an equivalent series of Consensus Standards for the rest of GA that would apply to the majority of light civil piston airframes that are being (or might be) bought these days? The industry would innovate, costs could be driven down, great new designs could be brought to market and excite new buyers, the industry would regain more control over its destiny, and it is quite possible that (in addition to other disruptive programs), that it would also lead to the introduction and acceptance of some radical new airframe concepts that would simply not get the FAA’s approval without great difficulty. We’re not talking about getting rid of certification standards… but instead, simplifying and building consensus throughout the industry so that it can, collectively, go forward without much of the bureaucratic insanity, delays, inconsistencies, and political nonsense that typifies the current cumbersome/costly system.

A true Pilot’s Bill of Rights has never been needed more than it is now. We’ve learned and progressed so little since the days of the FAA v Bob Hoover debacle that it boggles the mind that this nonsense is still allowed to continue. Hundreds of pilots have been driven out of aviation and hundreds of businesses and programs have suffered under the FAA’s undemocratic/unconstitutional heavy hands, wielding the inexplicable hammer of un-American Administrative procedures. A Pilot’s Bill of Rights… with all the power it should have had right from the start (though serious kudos go to Senator Jim Inhofe for getting as much of it passed as he has so far), is desperately needed. It is beyond belief that some street-corner scumbag selling drugs to school-children, has more of a right to due process and the protections of our constitution, than a pilot caught busting an altitude for a few seconds. No kidding -- Pilots are being driven out of aviation. Businesses are being driven under. Even FAA employees have been victims of the current debacle… but until we can guarantee every pilot and aviation professional the simple basic protections offered to any citizen (or non-citizen, these days), this business cannot hope to work itself out of its current difficulties. Aviators and aviation professionals deserve respect and the equal rights accorded to us all when we’re not flying… and its high time that we make some aggressive changes in this regard… and yes, we have some ideas and efforts underway to help us all get there.

We need a new and affordable way for people to start getting the flying bug without having to mortgage their souls. In the early 1980s, the ultralight movement set fire to the public’s imagination as a number of unique $5-10K (or less) flying machines introduced them to the fun of basic light sport aviation. Those were great days. Tens of thousands of people tried them out and a surprising number of these vehicles were sold. They were fun, heady times and I personally know of hundreds of new pilots who came to our ranks via ultralights that are now flying Cessnas and Pipers and what have you. While the $5-10K ultralight flying machine may not be feasible in this day and age, a good solid $10-20K Ultralight-legal bird or basic single seat LSA might be brought forth to excite possible new sport flyers the world over. The ultralight movement lasted until some really bad press pretty much destroyed the industry overnight after a high-profile accident involving a news-person who ignored instructions managed to kill himself in front of his compatriots. However; a new generation of ultralights, taking advantage of the best new materials, powerplants and manufacturing technologies to keep prices and quality high just might ignite their popularity once again (and we recommend the aggressive adoption of BRS technologies to keep them safe when the inevitable idiot gets ahold of them). Also; this is one area of aviation that could easily be the proving ground for simple basic electrical powerplants and battery systems. The potential is staggering. Really. And, oh yeah, these machines were a LOT of fun to fly… and bringing a LOT more fun into this biz can only lead to better times.

The aviation industry needs to assemble a small but expert group of highly experienced aviators and other aviation professionals to take a HARD look at today’s regulation glut. The need to take a few categories of regs at a time, FARs, Airspace, various certification protocols, you name it -- and then come together to take a concentrated look at undertaking a serious reduction, say a target of 50% or more; that would simplify, concentrate, and build a solid set of understandable, workable regs that are devoid of repetition, nonsense, and overtly thorny concepts that do little or no good in today’s massively overcomplicated over-regulated bureaucratic monstrosities that are dragging down our ability to build aviation anew. Too many regs only create a more dangerous system that has become virtually impossible to comply with and unusable while offering too many conflicts that make it nearly impossible to work in this system. The amount of waste involved in trying to stay on the legal side of this immense bureaucratic morass is simply incredible and unworkable. Cutting it all down would improve efficiencies, access and contribute to a more understandable safer aero-environment.

The associations, with a few exceptions, are not what they used to be. Leadership skills are at an all-time low, their missions have become nebulous, and hard to understand. There is very little cooperation between the alphabets (and lots of wasteful duplication), and the overall effect is not good. There ARE a few good associations out there… but many of them are getting strangled by the older/larger "look at us… even though we’re not doing anything for you anymore" ‘600-pound gorilla’ groups that seem intent on raising money, tooting their horn, competing with some of their members, and doing as little as possible while telling everyone how good they are. They’ve turned their backs on many of the problems we face, and can’t be counted on to get their hands dirty when such tactics are required. This is a tough problem to solve… but if a few of the better groups got together, dispensed with the BS, and set on really aggressive, positive, disruptive agendas, it might shame the rest into getting off their duffs and earning their membership’s support. Of course, the key to this is a new generation of aviation leadership to go with these re-energized alphabet groups… and while we have some exceptional examples out there (Jack Pelton, Paula Derks, John Cudahy and others), it’s not enough until such great leaders become the rule rather than the exception.

This may sound somewhat simplistic -- but with every aviation event I attend, I see a more persistent need for aviation to get its sales/marketing/PR act together. The state of the aviation world’s overall marketing/communications abilities is abysmal. Really, Really, Bad – and not just among the little guys. These days, we see way too many examples of companies that don’t know how to engage a prospect, even fewer know how to sell, and way too many companies and their staffers are media/mktg/PR ignorant. I watch salespeople at Fly-Ins talking amongst themselves, failing to engage in conversations with interested passersby, a lack of brochures and supplemental info, a total inability to work with the media, failing to even ask for a name or other contact info with the few people they actually do engage, poor marketing skills in terms of press releases, advertising and overall outreach… you name it. As bad as things are, it would not take a lot of education and training to significantly improve our lot with NO changes to product lines, prices or the like… just a simple upgrade in knowing how to seek out new customers, while learning to talk to them and seek their purchases. I’m amazed at the foolishness we see. Here’s one good example… our Airborne Innovation Previews series (and the associated NPI) has racked up millions of views around the world and through a LOT of attention of the participants. And while we have no problems filling our rosters with MANY solid applicants for the positions we offer in these FREE programs; others just can’t be bothered. Some simply won’t read up on what’s required, do the prep work, or couldn’t be troubled to do something that does NOTHING BUT MAKE THEM LOOK GOOD – for little effort/expenditure. The ignorance amongst those who pass these (and other programs) up is staggering… and is but one reason why we have few hopes for the companies that can’t get their acts together for such efforts. After hearing enormously powerful reports from folks who HAVE taken the time to work such programs, and seen stunning results, it’s gratifying to see people be so successful for so little effort and resources… and a true shame that a significant percentage of the aero-verse is too clueless to get involved and improve their lot. I have little doubt that such poorly motivated/skilled companies have poor futures… but it could all be different if they got their marketing and communications acts together. Folks… this is a no-brainer… the aero-verse could significantly improve its lot by quite a margin by simply doing better business and practicing good marketing and communications… this is NOT new technology, requires no special skills… just a desire to take on the basics in terms of communicating what you have, reaching out to the customer and making sure your message is heard. I have a strong belief that overall, this business could improve its lot by an easy 10-20% JUST by getting its marketing act together. Really.

The legal system must have some measure of sanity restored. Engine companies should not lose suits when the engine was still running just fine right up until the moment the airplane blundered into the side of a hill. Airframe companies should not face millions of dollars in penalties because some pilot got stupid and blundered off into conditions that they were not rated for or knowledgeable enough to deal with the hazards. Suits should not be allowed to target dozens of parties, even those with only the slightest involvement, just so that someone, somewhere (with the most accessible monies), can be left holding the bag. The current system is incredibly destructive, horribly unjust, and has decimated many aviation businesses and their owners, staffers, participants. A massive redrafting of tort law, and the way that aviation is victimized by it, is a critical undertaking that must receive priority in any and all attempts to rebuild aviation anew.

Sims could save aviation a lot of grief and prep the next generation of pilots better than we have previously imagined. Simply put, modern simulation technology has become incredibly powerful. And yet, simulation can be so much better than we have already, with AI programs under development to challenge pilots ‘on the fly’ in order to mix things up and provide an interactive and challenging environment that more closely mirrors the real-world hazards GA pilots face. With the realism available, in terms of today’s graphics, motion, and training courses; we believe that the next generation of flight sims can raise the training bar in ways never fully imagined. There’s virtually nothing that will not be able to be accomplished in a far more cost-effective manner by next-gen flight sims and we’re already seeing incredible benefits with the current tech… much less that which we know is just around the corner. Current flight training, as we know it, is simply unable to be what it must be to make the complex world of today’s aviation demands accessible and understandable to the point where we can finally quit killing new pilots with the same old accidents… but I’m confident that not only are the next-gen capabilities, that are NOW being developed, more than capable of changing the game, but doing so in a radically effective way. Few areas of aviation show as much promise as what the flight simulation developers are working on… right now… with ways to simulate real-world weather, show pilots how to deal with complex problems, demonstrate the effects of icing, and affect the aircraft’s capabilities in terms of a number of highly variable dynamics. The next generation of FlightSim technology can save us all a lot of grief and build a disruptive path to a much safer future.

Aviation needs a better business bureau… something that can weed out the con-artists, help with disputes and try to keep this industry from getting screwed by the next Icon, Cirrus, Mini-500 or the like. The scary part is not the fact that aviation has its share of scandals… but the fact that so many of these companies seem to be getting away with it. Icon frittered away millions without producing a single delivered airframe in over a decade… and no one wanted to speak up about it and even after all that has occurred, they’re still lying to the public. Cirrus screwed a LOT of people and lied through its teeth about so many things… and while things are a little quieter these days, they’ve done NOTHING to prove to me that they’re willing to truly mend their ways… while some of the bizarre details of their jet program do little to regain any confidence from those of us at ANN. And while these stories are the larger ones we’ve noted, there are still a number of smaller scandals that require a dispassionate, ethical, credible clearing house for those with a need to NOT get screwed by an aviation business. The Aero-Verse desperately needs a better business bureau… now.

And on a less technically minded note… We have to learn to come together, to support each other, to make each other flyer’s problems our own and to realize that we, as a community, are an extraordinary group of human beings… FLYERS! We are deserving of a positive and prosperous future... but we must work for it -- united, we must choose to be led by good people who have our best interests at heart, we must participate personally in every possible way, we must learn to be honest with each other, and to empower each other to regain our former prominence -- and then go past and exceed it as a force of extraordinary people, all united by the fact we are something more than the average human being… we are aviators… and that is something quite amazing, indeed. BUT… until we learn to act together as a synergistic, mutually supportive community, we are our own worst enemy.

But more important than what we think… what say YOU? Let us hear from you!

FMI: ANN Readers What Ideas Do YOU Have to Rebuild a Future for The Aviation World?

 


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