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Fri, Dec 03, 2004

Will Van's Break 4000 This Year?

Leading Kit-maker Approaches a Milestone: 4000 Completed and Flown

By Kevin R.C. "Hognose" O'Brien, Aero-News Senior Correspondent

In the past we've written about the steady pace of completions of the world's most popular kit aircraft, Van's Aircraft's RV-series. Well over 400 machines were completed in 2003, and the pace of completions in 2004 makes one wonder if Van's will post the completion of the 4,000th RV-series homebuilt before year end? Or will it come a few weeks into 2005?

Will they or won't they? December is a slow building month, with holidays and family activities keeping builders out of their workshops. Winter in the Northern Hemisphere plays havoc with first-flight plans. But Van's is tantalizingly close. This morning, 2nd December, the Van's website reports 3,957 RV's completed and flown. They are 43 short of the magic Four Large... and if they kept their annual rate for the remaining 28 days of December, they just might do it. (If not, of course, the milestone will certainly fall in January).

Four Thousand. Yikes! What does this number mean? Well, the only homebuilt aircraft which even approaches the popularity of the Van's RV series is the epochal Rutan canard series, which is not a perfect comparison: it's a plans-built aircraft for which plans have been unavailable for almost 20 years (although the derivative Cozy is still available for people who prefer that concept), and odds are that there will NEVER be 4,000 completions. Jim Bede sold around 4,000 all-metal BD-5 kits, but his sport plane design was cursed with engine issues for years, and suffered a very low completion rate. But Van hasn't sold 4,000 kits -- his builders have FLOWN 4,000 kits. No homebuilt designer has approached that number. Not ever. And none is on the horizon.

Even if Van stopped selling kits today, there are a vast number of kits still in the pipeline. Van's hasn't published exact sales numbers that I am award of, but comparing serial numbers and Vans' occasional releases to number-flown statistics, there are about 2,500 RV-6s alone in the pipeline, and that model has been supplanted by the improved RV-7, and another 1,500 of the RV-9.

Why are Van's kits so popular? There are two reasons: the plane, and the company. The plane -- any model of RV -- is a good practical machine, not compromised in any performance measure, but optimized in a balance of all, and well-integrated to yield pleasant handling characteristics. It's not marathon runner, a sprinter, or a heavyweight boxer: it's more like the all-round athlete who lettered in several sports. Evolution, not revolution (which is a fine thing: attempts at revolution in homebuilt aircraft often stumble). Van's isn't shy about touting the sporty handling of the low-winged, metal planes, but RV drivers themselves are his best salesmen: as Packard used to say, "ask the man who owns one." The answer you get will likely begin with an unofficial Van's trademark: "The RV Grin."

RV's have achieved this production number -- one many certified aircraft manufactures can only envy -- with a kit that requires significant hard work in even its most complete Quick-Build form. Nobody builds an RV by shaking the crate until the pieces stick together, and there's no factory builder assist program where you sip coffee while factory technicians put your plane together. When an RV first sees air under its wheels, somebody has spent many, many hours to make it happen. And few RVs are built in the minimum possible time, as builders go the extra mile to pursue excellence. The kit gives them a good base for that: the factory riveting puts most certified airplanes (and a few certified bizjets) to shame. The RV is an excellent all-around sport/utility aircraft, a thumping good value, and it builds from a very good kit, which is half of the reason that many thousands of builders have thought was worth the effort.

The company is the other factor in RV's success. Van's is a bit unusual among kit aircraft makers: the company makes no extravagant claims, and publishes no optimistic specifications. An RV kit assembled according to the instructions just flat performs to the designer's specifications. (Perhaps it's an unfortunate point that this is unusual, but it's true -- many kit manufacturers can't resist applying a bit of gloss to the spec sheet, and a few of them are so far out there, that they must be working with different laws of physics than Isaac Newton's and ours). Van's delivers all it promises, a consumer experience that should be universal, but which isn't, always, in our industry.

The RVs are unusual in other ways, as well. The rule of thumb for homebuilt resale values is: "Don't Expect More Than the Residual Value of the Engine." This applies to most homebuilts, but not all -- and certainly not to the popular and sporty RV-6, 7 and 8. A vibrant secondary market in these machines shows that, even with 4,000 built, there will still be more eager buyers chasing too few completed and available RVs. Some builders and buyers have seen their RVs appreciate, like some certified aircraft have. (Too few of the practical RV-9 and four-seat RV-10 have come on the secondary market to make a determination, but it's reasonable to expect that they will perform like their stablemates in this measure, also).

The sheer popularity of the Van's RV also helps: it's reached a critical mass where there are endless resources, encouragement, and support for the would-be RV builder or pilot. He or she is not just building an airplane, but joining a proud and strong tribe. An RV can't do everything, so there is plenty of room in the wide world of experimental-amateur built aviation for other designs. If you have an unusual mission you need something more specialized; if you are looking to shock the world with your bleeding-edge radicality you aren't going to look here. But for an all-round good machine, good firm, and good building experience, you can't go wrong with a kit from the Oregon firm.

So we understand why someone will soon do First Flight Number 4000. But who -- and when?

Stay tuned.

FMI: www.vansaircraft.com

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