FAA Releases Annual 20-Year Forecast | Aero-News Network
Aero-News Network
RSS icon RSS feed
podcast icon MP3 podcast
Subscribe Aero-News e-mail Newsletter Subscribe

Airborne Unlimited -- Recent Daily Episodes

Episode Date

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

Airborne On ANN

Airborne 07.20.15

Airborne 07.21.15

Airborne 07.22.15

Airborne 07.23.15

Airborne 07.24.15

Airborne Hi-Def On YouTube

Airborne 07.20.15

Airborne 07.21.15

Airborne 07.22.15

Airborne 07.23.15

Airborne 07.24.15

EAA/ANN AirVenture Innovation Preview

AIP-#1 Vimeo

AIP-#2 Vimeo

AIP-Part 1 YouTube

AIP-Part 2 YouTube

Thu, Mar 07, 2013

FAA Releases Annual 20-Year Forecast

Projects Long-Term Future Growth In Commercial, GA Sectors

The FAA on Tuesday released its Annual Aerospace Forecast Fiscal Years 2012-2033 that provides a comprehensive examination of current and future trends in air transportation. The comprehensive report looks at all aspects of aviation including the numbers of flights, commercial airline passenger totals, aircraft fleet size, private flying, and international travel.

The FAA uses the forecast to determine how best to devote its workforce and resources, and the aviation community also uses the forecast for planning and investments.

In the report, the FAA says as the economy recovers from "the most serious economic downturn and slow recovery in recent history," aviation will continue to grow over the long run. Fundamentally, demand for aviation is driven by economic activity. As the economy returns to growth, so will aviation. The 2013 FAA forecast calls for U.S. carrier passenger growth over the next 20 years to average 2.2 percent per year, compared to last year’s forecast growth of 2.6 percent per year. After another year of slow or no growth this year, growth over the next five years will be slightly higher than the long run rate as we assume the U.S. economy grows at a faster rate. This delayed trajectory represents the downward adjustments of the overall economy, here in the U.S. and abroad, and of the aviation sector response.

System capacity in available seat miles (ASMs) – the overall yardstick for how busy aviation is both domestically and internationally – is projected to shrink by 0.1 percent this year after posting a 0.1 percent increase in 2012; it will then grow at an average annual rate of 2.9 percent through 2033. In the domestic market, capacity growth hovers around zero for the second year in a row. Domestic capacity is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent for the remainder of the forecast period. Domestic mainline carrier capacity will not increase in 2013 after increasing 0.7 percent in 2012. For the regional carriers, domestic capacity growth is also projected to be flat in 2013 after declining 4.3 percent in 2012. Commercial air carrier domestic revenue passenger miles (RPMs) are forecast to increase 0.7 percent in 2013, and then grow at an average of 2.2 percent per year through 2033; domestic enplanements in 2013 will decrease 0.1 percent, and then grow at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent for the remainder of the forecast.

Although the slow growth of the U.S. economy and the European recession has dampened the near term prospects for general aviation, the long-term outlook remains favorable. The FAA said in the report that it expects to see growth in business aviation demand over the long term driven by a growing U.S. and world economy especially in the turbo jet, turboprop and turbine rotorcraft markets. As the fleet grows, the number of general aviation hours flown is projected to increase an average of 1.5 percent a year through 2033.

FMI: Read the Report

Advertisement

More News

Airborne At OSH15 Day 4 Redux: FAA Says Little, Sun Flyer, 'That's All, Brother'

Also: Jack Pelton Interview - Part 4, Trig Avionics Update, 3rd Class Medical, Part 23 Re-Write, UAVs... FAA Administrator Michael Huerta made his annual speech at AirVenture today>[...]

Debris Found In Indian Ocean Raises Speculation About MH370

Parts Appear To Be Consistent With A B777 Debris that could be from a Boeing 777 has been found off the coast of Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean, raising speculation that it cou>[...]

AD: The Boeing Company Airplanes

AD NUMBER: 2015-15-11 PRODUCT: Certain Boeing Model 747-100B, 747-100B SUD, 747-200B, 747-200C, 747-200F, 747-300, 747-400, 747-400D, 747-400F, 747SR, and 747SP series airplanes.>[...]

AD: Bombardier, Inc. Airplanes

AD NUMBER: 2015-15-07 PRODUCT: Certain Bombardier, Inc. Model DHC-8-400 series airplanes.>[...]

ANN's Daily Aero-Linx (07.30.15)

Establishing A Flying Club Just back from Oshkosh and jazzed to start your own Flying Club? Here's advice on how to get started from EAA.>[...]

blog comments powered by Disqus



Advertisement

Advertisement

Podcasts

Advertisement

© 2007 - 2015 Web Development & Design by Pauli Systems, LC