That's Nearly 29,000 New Airplanes Over 20 Years
In its forecast on
market demand for new commercial airliners released this week,
Boeing says it sees a $2.8 trillion market for new commercial
airplanes over the next 20 years. Strong demand for new airplanes
will lead to a world fleet with significantly improved
environmental performance, according to the American
These new airplanes will accommodate a forecasted five percent
annual increase in passenger traffic, and a 6.1 percent annual
increase in air cargo traffic.
"Air travel is going to continue to grow, driven by economic
growth, world trade, liberalization, and by the availability of
new, more capable and more efficient airplanes," said Boeing
Commercial Airplanes Vice President, Marketing, Randy Tinseth.
"This growth will occur in an environmentally responsible and
accountable manner that addresses greenhouse gas reduction efforts
with progressive new aircraft and increased operational
efficiencies in the air transportation system."
The Boeing outlook calls for a market of 28,600 new commercial
airplanes (passenger and freighter) by 2026, with a much more
balanced demand in aircraft by region over the forecast period.
On a delivery-dollar basis, the largest market is projected to
be the Asia-Pacific region, with 36 percent of the $2.8 trillion
total. North America will make up 26 percent of the delivery
dollars, and Europe, Russia, and the CIS (Commonwealth of
Independent States) will make up a total of 25 percent. Deliveries
to airlines in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa will
represent the remaining 13 percent of the delivery dollars between
2007 and 2026.
Over the next 20 years, passenger and cargo airlines will take
delivery of approximately:
- 3,700 regional jets -- below 90 seats
- 17,650 single-aisle airplanes -- 90-240 seats, dual-class
- 6,290 twin-aisle airplanes -- 200-400 seats, tri-class
- 960 airplanes 747-size or larger -- more than 400 seats,
Combined with the retained fleet, these new deliveries will
result in a world commercial airplanes fleet of more than 36,400
airplanes by 2026.
"The single-aisle segment will continue to have the greatest
demand in terms of units," Tinseth said. "This is partially driven
by continued high growth in low-cost carriers."
In terms of value, the twin-aisle category is projected to be
the largest. Boeing says airplanes such as the 787 and 777 (and the
Airbus A330 and upcoming A350 XWB) will enable airlines to grow by
providing more flights to more destinations. Airplanes 747-size and
larger will continue to operate in Asia-related markets as well as
across the North Atlantic.
Boeing projects strong demand for new large freighters due to
their fuel efficiency, higher reliability and utilization, and
The Current Market Outlook forecasts that commercial airplanes
in the 90 to 400-seat categories will account for almost all of the
growth in air travel over the next 20 years. Airlines will continue
to accommodate that growth by adding frequencies and nonstop
flights -- not by flying larger and larger aircraft, Boeing