Which Airliner Will Russian Carrier Choose -- And Why?
There appears to be a new Cold War forming between the US and
Russia... in the political arena, as well as in the commercial
aircraft market. And the ultimate winner could be Europe's
Airbus.
For the last several months, Russia's flagship airline Aeroflot has been mulling over its choices
for a widebody airliner: the Airbus A350 and Boeing's
787, for an order reported to be worth an estimated $3 billion at
list prices.
Many originally expected Boeing to have the upper hand in that
negotiation -- after all, the Dreamliner already leads the A350 by
over 100 orders, it will be available two years sooner (at least) than the A350, and
is expected to be more efficient. But guess what? Airbus may wind
up coming out on top... in fact, several Russian media sources over
the weekend stated that Aeroflot has already agreed to purchase as
many as 22 A350s, reports that were later picked up by United Press
International.
What happened? The answer may lie in two areas: the substantial
$100 million discount Airbus reportedly offered Aeroflot in
February to sign for the A350s... and a more recent development
that has everything to do with political tensions between the US
and Russia.
Last week, US Vice President Dick Cheney criticized Moscow's
commitment to establishing a full-fledged democracy, as well as the
country's policy on energy reserves. That added to friction already
between the two former Cold War adversaries, caused by
Washington’s tough stance on Russia’s bid to enter the
World Trade Organization.
Despite reports that Aeroflot had put its orders in the Airbus
column, an unnamed source with Aeroflot told Reuters over the
weekend the decision has not yet been made.
"This has become highly politicized," the source said.
"It’s been delayed several times and ...it’s delayed
again."
As for the two aircraft manufacturers, they're playing this
close to the vest. An Airbus spokesman declined to comment on the
matter... and Boeing only added that "we continue to talk with the
customer."
It appears that, for now, the matter remains up in the air...
but those tensions could spell added difficulty for the American
manufacturer to gain sales against its European rival, at a time
when Boeing has shown strength in the widebody sales arena compared
to Airbus. Boeing's current 777 and upcoming 787 lines have
garnered big order numbers recently, compared to a relatively poor
showing by Airbus's A340 and A350.
What's more, this wouldn't be the first time political issues
have spelled trouble for Boeing. Earlier this year, Aero-News reported on the impact political
fallout over the bungled US-Dubai ports deal could have on Boeing's
future sales to Emirates. Like Aeroflot, Emirates has
also delayed its decision on their expected 50-aircraft
order... possibly waiting for the political situation to stabilize,
or perhaps to take another look at what numbers Airbus can
offer the flagship carrier of the UAE.
In the highly volatile world of aircraft sales, however, Boeing
could also end up the choice for both carriers... as Airbus is
strongly rumored to be reconsidering the design of the A350, over
concerns voiced by several customers (including Emirates). Any such
redesign -- which would almost certainly result in a product
superior to the 787 -- would also delay further the A350's
original 2010 launch date... by as much as two extra years.