Lies, Damned Lies and Damnable Statistics...

It's kinda official. A University of South Florida study with some perceptible flaws, led by Jack Walters, (an Assistant Dean at USF), has none the less shown that the Sun 'n Fun Fly-In, (as ANN staffers have charged for nearly a decade), has been lying to the public, the aviation industry, and a number of governmental agencies--in possible violation of law. 

Remember those attendance estimates that Sun 'n Fun kept touting? The figures that ran well into the 600,000 person range?

Well, Those #s Are BULL (Deleted)

As a matter of fact; SnF seems to have over-estimated the attendance at this event by a factor of FOUR. Yes, Four.

According to University of South Florida researchers, the latest attendance figures for this steadily declining event numbered but 160,000 people. Particularly problematic in this revelation is the fact that Sun 'n Fun has heavily promoted these numbers in order to solicit government funding, sell exhibit space, seek media exposure and otherwise profit from these bogus claims.

The news gets even more troublesome as the numbers are dissected. According to the USF study, SnF had some 57,000 paid visitors in 2003 (staying for one to seven days), with the rest of the total filled by UNPAID personnel -- including thousands of volunteers, staffers, and media. The economic impact, as published by USF, was estimated at 27.4 million bucks.

Not surprisingly, the spin machine is already in full gear with various Sun 'n Fun and Lakeland City officials trying to make out like this was some kind of positive announcement. In a hard-hitting Lakeland Ledger story that still seemed willing to make some mild apologies for Sun 'n Fun President John Burton, (who didn't join the SnF gang until mid-1999), Burton is reported to have said that "The way I look at it, this is great news for Sun 'n Fun and for Polk County."

We found that statement intriguing in light of the fact that Burton, in one of the few conversations he had with ANN's Jim Campbell after getting the post in Lakeland, swore that Sun 'n Fun did not report inaccurate numbers during a conversation in which he accused Campbell of reporting on Sun 'n Fun in a negative manner (while ignoring the majority of positive coverage the event has received from Campbell's publications). For four years; Sun 'n Fun has banned Campbell's access to the Fly-In, a publicly funded event, and even to adjacent Federal property (in apparent violation of Federal Law) after Campbell reported a number of safety and ethical issues that have, without exception since, been proven to have foundation and validity.

In the same vein, a Lakeland City Commission member is reported (again in the Ledger) as having had some doubts about Sun 'n Fun's original claims. "If 400,000 people were in Lakeland at one time, we'd all know it," said City Commissioner Dean Boring. The Ledger reported that Boring claimed to not be surprised by the 160,000 attendance figure. "Economic impact is the most important thing... It doesn't matter how many people attend as long as it is what it is -- a wonderful event."

Several years ago, when ANN spoke directly with Boring, the Commissioner offered no such doubts and in fact, cast doubts (in other words, he blew him off) on Campbell's concerns over the safety of the event and the ethical problems that were becoming evident to many in the industry. In relation to one of the warnings that Boring received directly from Campbell, SnF was the scene of a fatal accident in an area and manner that was literally predicted, beforehand. In addition to the warning to Boring, the matter was publicized via a number of safety advisories that ANN published and distributed to SnF, the City, the County and media organizations.

Mind you, this should not be surprising in a city in which the Mayor offered ANN's Editor-In-Chief a chance to put aside SnF's banning order, if Campbell "would only write nice things" about them.

Sadly, The Numbers May Be Even Worse Than USF Reported

In a recent report, ANN voiced concerns about situations they witnessed at the 2003 event and the efforts expended to get an accurate attendance count. Among those concerns: 

• The USF students and volunteers, who were passing out the survey forms, were in evidence only on the heaviest days of the show. An extrapolation from those days would, naturally, be inflated by a factor of probably between three and five.
• The survey asked things like, "How many in your party?" and "How much are you spending each night for hotels?" and "How many nights will you be staying?" If a family of four all got the surveys (and there was nothing in place to assure they wouldn't), the results could be inflated, again.
• We don't know the exactly methodology that Dr Walters is using to extrapolate the economic impact; but if he uses the survey results to profile some "average" attendee, it's a cinch that those who went through the spectator gates (as opposed to those who came through the vendor gates, and those who stayed on the grounds in the camping area) would be over-represented; and the spectators would probably be found in more hotels and restaurants. Thus, the economic impact of the spectators would be extrapolated to the campers...
• We do know that stacks of survey forms were left altogether unattended for entire days, at the ballot boxes, so someone with an agenda (and who, outside Sun 'n Fun, would?) could stuff the ballot boxes with as many phony surveys as they'd like. Obviously, this hole in the system could render the survey useless.

Unfortunately; the entire airshow industry has suffered as a result of the frauds published by Sun 'n Fun. Numerous airshow and Fly-In organizations have admitted that there seems to be a loss of credibility in the industry. This was particularly evident prior to this year's Oshkosh EAA Fly-In where even once-wholly-favorable local media coverage picked up on the issue and discussed its impact, critically, on the Oshkosh Fly-In.

In the meantime; vendors, exhibitors, public officials and other parties who were in some way deceived, and potentially defrauded, by Sun 'n Fun's rampant deceptions appear to be getting ready for a fight. A number of vendors have reported that they are asking State and Federal officials for an investigation of the organization and hoping for criminal prosecution should anything sufficiently unlawful be uncovered. Both the State and US Attorney will not answer ANN's questions about the potential for a criminal investigation, but neither have they denied that such is underway.

We'll keep you updated, as we do expect some activity in this area. Too many people seem to be too upset with these frauds and deceptions to let the matter go. And in the interim, aviation continues to deal with an enduring black eye at a time when it can ill afford the bad press.

FMI: www.lklnd.usf.edu