2011-2030 Global Market Forecast Projects Demand For Nearly
27,000 New Airliners
The continuing “democratization” of air transport
– driven by emerging economies, a global increase in wealth,
greater urbanization, the need for more eco-efficient aircraft and
a nearly doubling of major airport hubs for mega-cities –
will lead to the demand for more than 26,900 new passenger
airliners and over 900 new factory-built cargo aircraft during the
next 20 years, according to Airbus’ latest Global Market
Forecast.
Unveiled at a press conference Monday in London, the 2011-2030
Global Market Forecast foresees an overall doubling of the global
passenger airliner fleet sized at 100 seats and more, increasing
from 15,000 aircraft today to 31,500 by 2030. The average seat
capacity of aircraft also will continue to increase as air traffic
retains its positive growth curve.
“Key factors identified in our new 20-year forecast
include a strong driving of traffic growth by the emerging
economies, the nearly doubling of traffic in and between more
mature markets, and the positioning of Asia-Pacific as the leader
in world traffic,” John Leahy, Airbus Chief Operating
Officer-Customers, told reporters at the press conference.
“Other factors are a faster growth in long-haul traffic than
short-haul, while the 39 cities worldwide that handle more than
10,000 long-haul passengers daily today will become nearly 90
cities in 20 years.”
The largest category for new aircraft in terms of requirement
numbers is the single-aisle segment. The need for nearly 19,200
single-aisle aircraft with capacities of 100-210 seats is
anticipated by the Airbus Global Market Forecast during the 20-year
timeframe, representing a combined value of some $1.4 trillion. Of
this total, approximately 50 per cent of the deliveries are
anticipated in the well-established North American and European
airline markets.
For the twin-aisle category, which typically seats from 250 to
400 passengers, the Airbus Global Market Forecast sees a broad
segmentation with broad demand. A doubling of the worldwide
twin-aisle fleet will result in deliveries of some 6,900 new
passenger and freighter aircraft during the 20 year period –
valued at an estimated $1.5 trillion. For passenger aircraft, an
estimated 70 per cent of the demand will be focussed on the
250-seat and 300-seat segments.
In the Very Large Aircraft (VLA) category with seating
capacities of more than 400 passengers, the Airbus Global Market
Forecast calls for the requirement of 1,781 jetliners valued at
some $600 billion – an increase in demand from the 1,738
aircraft estimated by the 2010 forecast. Of the total, 45 per cent
of VLA deliveries are expected for Asian airlines, followed by 23
percent for carriers in the Middle East and 19 per cent for
European airlines.
The Airbus Global Market Forecast is a regularly-updated 20-year
outlook on aircraft demand and passenger flows, taking into account
econometric forecasts that are complemented by market research and
judgment. It involves detailed studies of network evolution –
including new routes, markets and deregulation “hot
spots” – and anticipates the fleet evolution covering
hundreds of passenger airlines and cargo carriers.