Predicts 10,087 Business Aircraft Will Be Built In Next Decade

A total of 10,087 business aircraft -- valued at $141.1 billion in 2006 US dollars -- will be produced over the 2006-2015 decade. That's what Teal Group analysts predicted in their 16th annual world business aircraft production forecast, released Tuesday on opening day of the 2006 ILA Berlin Air Show.

That is a significant increase over the group's 15th annual forecast last year, that called for 7,417 business jets worth $106.7 billion to be produced in 2005-2014.

"These are great times. High corporate profits and high commodity prices, coupled with emerging market growth, have produced a likely all-time market high this year -- 901 planes worth $13.6 billion -- with further growth likely into 2007," said Richard Aboulafia, lead analyst for Teal Group's World Military & Civil Aircraft Briefing.

Among the highlights of the 1,400-page report:

• "After 2007 (the market peak) we predict a modest market dip, but this industry looks set to remain considerably larger than before its pre-1996-2001 transformation, when it experienced 350-percent growth," said Aboulafia.
• Of the 10,087 business jets worth $141.1 billion (again in 2006 dollars) that Teal analysts expect to be produced over the next 10 years, over 40 percent of these (by value) will be Class Four and Five (high-end) models. "We also forecast production of 296 versions of jetliners and regional jets worth a combined total of $8.9 billion," said Aboulafia. For comparison, the last ten years (1996-2005) saw production of 5,857 jets worth $94.5 (plus 115 jetliners and regional jets worth $5.8 billion).
• "We remain air taxi agnostics, although we do forecast a market for 2,310 very light jets (VLJs), including 620 Cessna Citation Mustangs," he said. ("Perspective: double our VLJ numbers to 500 per year and you only grow the total business jet market 3% by value")
• "Bombardier and Gulfstream will be the market leaders (25% and 23.9%, respectively)," he said, "followed by Dassault (19.2%) and Cessna (18%) at the second tier. Raytheon will be left with 10.1%. New very light jet (VLJ) makers, plus Embraer and Sino-Swearingen, look set to get 3.8% of the market in our forecast period," concluded Aboulafia.
• "We also remain strong believers in a supersonic business jet, arriving just after our forecast period," said Aboulafia.

The Teal Group is located in Hall 8 at ILA 2006, directly across from the EADS exhibit area. Group analysts will pull booth duty at various times throughout the show, according to the group.

FMI: www.tealgroup.com