Predicts Future Capacity Relies On Trust Fund Reform

At the FAA annual Forecast Conference Tuesday in Washington DC, Department of Transportation Secretary Norman Mineta (right) predicted domestic air travel will top one billion passengers a year by 2015 -- whether the nation's aviation system is prepared to handle it or not.

Mineta added the ability of the system to handle the increase in traffic will depend on finding a better way to pay for airport construction and safety improvements.

Mineta said the number of people flying has shown steady growth the past three years, surpassing record levels recorded before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. And while he called the forecast “sunny,” he also warned the picture could turn bleak without reform of the federal Aviation Trust Fund.

"Our growing aviation system needs a more stable and predictable revenue stream," Mineta said. Currently, trust fund revenues are collected based on a percentage of the cost of airline tickets, and have dropped in recent years due to cheaper airfares.

The Bush Administration expects to offer a plan this year to revamp the outdated trust fund formula, he said, adding "there needs to be a more direct relationship between revenues collected and services provided."

Stopping short of saying user fees would be part of that "more direct" relationship, Mineta told attendees that the proposal is "still on the drafting table." He also addressed early critics of the still-to-be-released plan by promising the process will continue to be "fair and open throughout."

"The real solution is not reducing traffic to fit capacity," Mineta said. "We must expand capacity to handle the growing traffic."

"Everything that we are trying to accomplish for the aviation system hinges on our success."

FMI: www.dot.gov, www.faa.gov