Strength And Resilience Of Single-Aisle Market Driving Forecast

The Indian market for new passenger airplanes will reach 1320 new aircraft and $150 billion over the next 20 years, according to market research conducted by Boeing. Driving that surge will be double-digit growth in the Indian economy, stimulating strong demand for new and replacement airplanes. Boeing India President Dinesh Keskar shared the forecast Tuesday in Boeing's outlook for India's commercial airplane market through 2030.

"Robust growth with new economic prosperity amongst a massive Indian population, discretionary incomes, business progress and access to airports will increase airplane demand," Keskar said. "In 2011, the economy continues to do well. Indian air carriers are becoming profitable and we expect the GDP to maintain its upward trend in the long-term. As a result, both the air travel and air cargo markets will grow." Keskar also said that airline revenue and yields were up, but high inflation and volatile fuel prices will play a pivotal role in the health of the industry.

Passenger traffic, which has reached 53.6 million domestic (fiscal 2011) and 13.1 million international, is expected to grow at 8.1 percent annually over the long-term. "The economic and air-traffic growth will in turn stimulate demand for a variety of aircraft types," Keskar said. "The need is great for new airplanes that can efficiently and profitably fly short and long-haul routes. This demand is driven by growth in developing and emerging cities, demand from low-cost carriers and the need to replace an aging fleet."

In the planemakers assessment, the biggest demand will be for single-aisle airplanes. To keep up with anticipated demand, Boeing recently announced it will boost production to a record 42 737s per month by the first half of 2014. Boeing airplanes currently dominate India's long-haul international fleet, with 777s and 747s in service, soon to be joined by the 787 Dreamliner. "The super-efficient 787 will offer significant economic improvement for airlines, increased comfort for passengers and better environmental performance," Keskar said.

India's airlines have been growing rapidly by taking advantage of geography, demographics, airplane technology and well-coordinated growth and investment plans. Some carriers, like Air India also are looking for replacement airplanes as they retire aging and less-efficient jets. Boeing predicts that India-based airlines also will grow by responding to passenger preference for more flight choices, lower fares and direct access to a wider range of destinations. Air carriers will focus on offering more flights using more efficient airplanes, instead of significantly larger airplanes.

Globally, Boeing forecasts a $4 trillion market for new aircraft over the next 20 years with a significant increase in deliveries. The company sees a market for 33,500 new passenger airplanes and freighters between 2011 and 2030. Passenger traffic is expected to grow at 5.1 percent annual rate over the long-term and the world fleet is expected to double by 2030.

FMI: www.boeing.com