Shaheen-II Has 1,200 Mile Range, Nuclear Warhead

Multiple sources reported Saturday morning that Pakistan had test fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile, with a range of 2,000 km (over 1,200 miles) and capable of carrying nuclear or conventional warheads. A photograph released by Pakistani authorities showed the launch of the Shaheen-II missile.

Given the tense situation in the region, Pakistan notified neighboring countries in advance of the launch. This has become a routine practice both for Pakistan and for its nuclear rival India, which have fought three major wars and innumerable lesser campaigns since their 1947 partition. The Pakistanis have already notified their neighbors of an upcoming test of another missile, the Ghaznavi-ER short range ballistic missile.

The Shaheen-II missile is a two-stage, solid-propellant rocket, fired from a twelve-wheeled mobile launcher, which according to Pakistani claims was developed entirely locally. It had been tested previously, although those tests were not completely successful. According to Pakistani sources, this one was. "Al Hamduillah [Praise Allah], all parameters were validated," a Pakistani statement said.

"Shaheen" means "Eagle." Some reports call it a Hatf-VI, but that apparently is a different weapon. "Hatf" means "The Prophet's Lance," and the original Hatf-I was a SCUD-class, but solid-fueled, weapon. Experts on subcontinent arms dismiss the idea that the Pakistani weapons were developed locally, but claim that they are locally produced "badge-engineered" Chinese models -- and the missiles and launchers do indeed seem to be identical to Chinese ones. The Shaheen-II, and its launcher, are dead ringers for the Chinese M-18.

Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf, who observed the test in person, was expansive after the launch. "In my opinion, today we have achieved a technological milestone. Our own scientists, our local scientists, have successfully achieved the big milestone of two-stage motor separation," he said.

Musharraf further claimed that Pakistan's deterrent force was now in place, and that Pakistan had no nuclear ambitions beyond deterrence. "Ever since we started feeling nuclear and missile threats, we responded by quantifying minimum level (of deterrence) and today I am very happy to announce that we have crossed that minimum deterrence level," he added. Another Pakistani source claims that the Shaheen-II can reach any point in India within seven minutes of launch. (However, that source, a 1999 article by Hanif Khalid which purports to tell the inside story of Pakistani missile development, also contains many demonstrable falsehoods and must be read with caution. That article is available in the Federation of American Scientists' coverage of Pakistani proliferation).

Pakistani sources have previously suggested that by nuclear and missile threats, he refers to India, which developed these technologies ahead of Pakistan. India first tested a nuclear weapon in 1974, Pakistan in 1998, but in both cases the delivery means took years beyond that date to mature.

Musharraf rejects any suggestion of disarmament, noting that the Pakistani nuclear program was broadly popular with the public. "The capability is here to stay, will continue to go from strength to strength and no harm will ever be allowed to come to it," Musharraf said. Pakistani spokesman Maj. Gen. Shaukat Sultan added that, according to Musharraf, "Pakistan will not only maintain its missiles capability but also improve and expand it according to future requirements."

A military statement renewed Musharraf's pledges of nonproliferation. In the light of revelations last month by Pakistani physicist (and national hero) Abdul Qadeer Khan that Pakistan supported the nuclear weapons programs of Iran, North Korea and Libya to an even greater degree than previously thought -- nominally criminal acts for which he's already been pardoned by Musharraf -- these pledges can scarcely be taken seriously by other nations, whether friends or potential enemies of Pakistan.

American and European officials are watching with great interest and considerable concern. While rival India has held its nuclear and missile capabilities at home, Pakistan has widely exported the technology. Some clients, such as Libya and Iraq, have since renounced nuclear weapons; others like North Korea and Iran are still thought to be developing them. The situation with Pakistan is touchy for the USA, as Musharraf has been a crucial, if reluctant, ally in the war on Islamist terrorists.

FMI: www.globalsecurity.org (independent watchdog)