Says Current Equipment Cannot Handle Projected Traffic Increase

Editor's Note: In a speech titled "Congested Skies" before the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Conference in Montreal September 28, FAA Air Traffic Organization Chairman Russell Chew (right) made his pitch for expanded capability and new equipment for controllers, that he says are needed to handle the projected growth in air traffic by 2014. He also highlighted the partnership between the FAA and Europe, with its SESAR project -- and called for expanded cooperation there, as well. ANN presents the entire speech, unedited, below.

Good morning, I’m honored to be here with Carol and Victor to kick things off in the opening panel of the conference. But before I begin, have you ever wondered where this phrase, "Kick things off" came from?

It comes from the opening kickoff that started a football game -- we call it soccer -- when the game was being developed in England in the mid 1800s. Back then, there were many different football clubs -- each playing by their own set of rules. This, of course, made competition with other clubs difficult. But in 1878, the various clubs united in what was known as the Football Association.

In the Football Association, the different clubs were able to harmonize -- so that an official set of rules could be created. These rules led to the games’ innovation, and guided its evolution. A hundred and thirty years later, the Football Association still endures, as part of FIFA, the sponsor of the World Cup Tournament.  

Now, what does this have to do with us? Well, we’re here to do the same thing — come together to discuss the important issues in aviation. At this conference, we’ll discuss how to shape the policies and rules that will determine aviation’s future — and advance the process of finding innovative solutions to these issues.

One major issue coming onto the world’s radar screen is the social and economic threat posed by increased air traffic congestion — a threat brought on by a projected surge in passenger growth in the near future.

Consider the evidence. By 2016, the FAA projects that domestic flights in the U.S. will increase by 27 percent over 2005 levels — that’s over one quarter of our current total. Passenger traffic between the U.S. and international destinations is expected to grow by 70 percent, and world-wide traffic is projected to increase by as much as 80 percent.

While the pace of this growth is exciting, it brings with it the challenge of congestion. Congestion steals time away from being with family and friends, limits our freedom and enjoyment as travelers, and it’s an increasing drag on the global economy. In fact, today’s tab for the American people stands at $9.4 billion a year due to commercial passenger delays — and that number could climb as high as $20 billion by 2025.

We also project that if traffic grows as expected, by 2014, delays in the US will increase 62 percent over 2004 levels.

And if the weather in 2014 is the same as it was in 2004, 29 days in 2014 will experience more delay than on the worst day in 2004. That’s a whole month!

These projected delays will cost the airlines at least $2 billion in extra costs that will seriously erode profits needed for future fleet and infrastructure expansions.

And, the situation is even worse for passengers. Because of missed connections, passenger delays could conceivably double by 2014 — only seven years from now.

In light of this increasing threat, we must build sufficient capacity so that congestion does not deprive us of the benefits that aviation brings.

However, what’s more important than reducing delays, is the safety of our system. That’s our highest priority. And congestion poses a major challenge here too.

We know from our data that operational errors often occur when traffic levels are lower. But our recent research has shown that they occur more often in our facilities that handle heavier traffic volume. 

We’ve also been doing some new research that tested a controller’s ability to handle increases in traffic. Early results suggest that when using our current technology, the controllers could not handle the increased volume of traffic without significantly degrading the level of service that our customers expect.

But when controllers had the right kind of automation, one that uses new and integrated technology, they were able to handle the traffic while maintaining a very reasonable level of workload, and this reduces the opportunities for human error.

Now, while these research programs help us define the path forward, our automation has historically been designed using humans as a "back up." We need technology with more redundancy. In other words -- we need technology that cannot fail.

Now, to ensure that our technology development and research is pointed in the right direction, we’re also focused on our work culture in the Air Traffic Organization. We are reinventing ourselves into a performance-based organization. We focus on producing greater value for our customers by developing a strategy that is based on measurable outcome, and we use that strategy to drive all our priorities. This is a culture where all employees at all levels are encouraged to take the initiative in helping us solve our growing congestion problems. This is the kind of culture that we need to succeed.

All of these efforts are critical stepping stones that will bring us to the Next Generation Air Transportation System. It’s a system-wide transformation that will allow us to handle two to three times the current amount of traffic, and a system that’s flexible enough to manage the new and different types of vehicles that the market may bring in the next 20 years.

Europe is, of course, pursuing the Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research program, or SESAR. We must continue to work in partnership together, and harmonize our operations, so that we can all reap the benefits of a vibrant, accessible, global aviation system.      

Aviation is the foundation for globalization. It’s the glue that binds together our people, our cultures, our economies, and our futures. Its transformation, by definition, will challenge the rules and policies that our existing system is based on.

So at this conference, let’s discuss what works, and what doesn’t. And let’s "kick off" the start of, not just a conference, but also a united vision that takes us to the Next Generation of flight. Thank you.

FMI: www.ato.faa.gov