New Third-Best Attendance Figure

by ANN Special Correspondent Dave Higdon

So near, but not so far. This year's National Business Aviation Association Convention came up to within a gnat's wing of besting last year's attendance in Orlando. The delegate count when the doors closed Thursday came to 32,051, just short of the 33,008 recorded last year.

But not to worry. Though the organization had hoped for a new record -- to best the figure set in Las Vegas a few years ago -- no one at NBAA was particularly bummed by the near miss because other records fell on the way to what association president and CEO Ed Bolen called "An outstanding convention."

For example, 1,152 companies participated to promote their goods and services to the NBAA audience. The old record, set only a year ago in Orlando, stood at 1,140 exhibiting companies. Accommodating all those exhibitors required two halls of the Georgia World Congress Center, space that encompasses more than 1 million square feet of floor space. And the static took over a major junk of the real estate inside the perimeter of Fulton County Airport just to accommodate the 115 aircraft displayed.

By the subjective measure of attitude, the convention was an unmitigated success, with hundreds of jets ordered, most in substantial double-digit blocks. If more than $2.6 billion in jet sales doesn't lift your wings, you need more runway.

The debut of exciting, cutting edge gear, such as L-3's stellar SmartDeck system, also lent an bit to the excitement level -- particularly when Cirrus announced its choice of the new system as the panel of choice for its upcoming "the jet."

And then there was the investment-and-acquisition action: New owners at Sino-Swearingen, which breathed new life into the moribund SJ30-2 program; the $200 investment by India's dynamic entrepreneur Dr. Vijay Mallya, for a 50 percent stake in fledgling planemaker Epic Aircraft; the $363 million in new money for XOJet -- the source of 110 new-jet orders all by itself.

Perhaps the buzz maker of all buzz makers was the story broken Monday evening by Aero-News, Cessna Aircraft's letter of intent to buy bankrupt Columbia Aircraft. While the planned purchase helped answer questions about the future of Columbia, it also raised questions about the future of Cessna's initial NGP project -- as well as questions about Cessna plans, where Columbia airplanes would be built, if not kept in Bend, OR and how Cessna marketing directors would now deal with years of telling prospects, "You don't want to fly no plastic airplane."

Cessna CEO Jack Pelton was quoted as saying whether the NGP or Columbia 350 -- pretty much in direct competition -- would stay or go, was something the market would tell them.

One rep already figured out the best way for him to adapt to selling low wing airplanes for the first time by first flying them inverted for a while. He was, of course, just kidding about the inverted part -- but the other wasn't joking about the "plastic airplane" quip. "Crow may be a big part of my diet for a while," he said.

Speaking of Cessna, the company's plans to advance its Large Cabin Concept business jet had some existing makers of large-cabin business jets girding for more competition -- competition they expected but deep down inside hoped wouldn't happen.

"Cessna's a marketing juggernaut," noted one large-cabin jet rep. "They may not please every customer with everything they do -- but you don't rise to the level of 5,000 business jets in 35 years by doing much wrong."

If Cessna's been successful, the other planemakers don't seem to be the ones suffering from its success.

Record order backlogs, stretching in some cases well past 2010 for some companies, hold worries in the minds of some executives. It's a problem they all love to have but it's not without its perils. Too long a wait and people could start defecting - or buying pre-owned to avoid the wait.

In the meantime, as the large number of orders attests, nobody is turning down any deposits.

Other companies aside from Cessna hinted at more models to come, among them Embraer with two more jets planned between the Phenom 300 light jet and the Legacy 600 large-cabin jet -- and the Brazilian company is also working on a Legacy 1000, based on the 100-plus seat EMB-190 airliner.

This degree of development and expanded model lines exists largely to capture better shares of the 14,000-plus business jets forecast for delivery by 2017 - a whopping $250-plus billion in hardware.

This year alone, total business jet deliveries are expected to clear the 1,000 mark for the first time -- but not the last, if you divide 10 years into 14,000.

Obviously, good times are here -- better times are ahead. And NBAA 2008 in Orlando will likely reflect that continued buoyancy.

FMI: www.nbaa.org