Bill would require airlines to buy antimissile equipment

GAMA numbers are down. Airspace is becoming more and more restrictive. Airlines continue to struggle through one of the worst slumps in industry history. What could be worse?

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The threat of portable missile attacks on passenger planes will top the agenda when international aviation security experts meet in Montreal next month. That word from Assad Kotaite, president of the International Civil Aviation Organization Council.

How Credible A Threat?

Terrorists fired two such missiles at an Israeli Boeing 757 in Kenya in November, narrowly missing the aircraft as it took off from Mombassa airport en route to Tel Aviv. There were no injuries in the attack, timed to coincide with a car bombing at a Kenyan resort popular with Israeli tourists.

The incident "raised concerns worldwide in the civil aviation community that this type of terrorist attack may spread to other regions and target carriers from other nations," Kotaite said.

SFM Proliferation

An estimated 27 guerrilla and terrorist groups worldwide have Soviet SA-series shoulder-fired missile launchers, which now outnumber the U.S.-made Stinger missiles that spread through Afghanistan in the 1990s, according to Jane's Intelligence Review.

The weapons can last up to 22 years and are nearly impossible to track until they are used because they are purchased on the black market, the defense journal said.

Al-Qaeda reportedly has a number of the missile launchers.

Carty: Greater Threat Overseas

Airline executives are worried but perceive the threat to be higher overseas than in the United States, said Don Carty (right), chairman and chief executive of AMR Corp., the parent of American Airlines.

"Everything is a concern to us," Carty said during a recent interview. "I think probably we're less concerned domestically than we might be with some international destinations where we're less sure of police and security and so on."

In London, six people have been arrested near Heathrow Airport. While British anti-terror police aren't saying much, the arrests come after a reported threat to use a shoulder-mounted missile in the downing of a commercial jetliner. Four of those arrested were directly under the Heathrow glide-slope.

Carty estimated the cost of outfitting jetliners with some kind of defense mechanism is $3 million to $4 million per airplane.

Two years ago, that might have sounded like an extreme step. But Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA)and Charles Schumer (D-NY) introduced a bill last week requiring commercial aircraft to be equipped with such systems. The cost was estimated at $10 billion. At least initially, the bill requires airlines to foot the cost.

This kind of an expense is the last thing airlines need right now, said Susan Donofrio, senior U.S. airline analyst at Deutsche Bank Securities.

"The airlines cannot afford another financial burden from Washington at this time," she wrote. "We would expect some push-back from the aviation industry unless there are guarantees that the aviation industry will not shoulder this financially."

FMI: www.air-transport.org