We've been hearing about it for years... a pilot shortage... a
critical one, at that. For many in the aviation community, it
sounded like good news... at least if you were on the bottom rungs
of the pilot hiring ladder and working desperately to climb your
way up. However; after engaging in discussions throughout the
industry over the last year and in attending a particularly pointed
(and very well-organized) presentation at the FAA Forecast
Conference some months ago, ANN and Aero-TV are left with the
troubling impression that aviation has a BIG problem on its
hands.
The session devoted to discussing the Pilot Supply was, as
indicated earlier, exceptionally produced and wholly on target. the
session was presented by Moderator Peter J. Wolfe, Executive
Director, Professional Aviation Board of Certification (PABC), and
augmented by presentations delivered by Kit Darby, President, AIR,
Inc, Captain Paul Rice, First Vice President, Air Line Pilots
Association, International, Ron Levy, University Aviation
Association, John Dixon, Director of Pilot Recruitment for American
Eagle.
The first presentation (continued over here in Part Two), and
one that set quite a trend for the session, was delivered by Kit
Darby. Kit Darby is the president of Aviation Information Resources
(AIR, Inc.). Currently a B767 captain with United Airlines, Mr.
Darby has interviewed 20 times with 16 different airlines and
worked with three majors and one national airline since 1978. He
has a BS in Aeronautical Studies from Embry-Riddle AU. Kit is
coauthor of the Simulator Flying Guide, Beginners' Guide to
Becoming a Career Pilot, the World Wide Pilot Supply Report, World
Wide Jet Transport Simulator Study and the new Pilot Career Guide.
Kit's flight experience includes 15,000 hours total time, 10,000
hours jet time. He has an ATP with B737, B727, DC-8, and B767 type
ratings, flight/instrument and engineer instructor, commercial
instrument helicopter pilot, plus military instructor/instrument
examiner ratings in two helicopters and five fixed-wing
multi-engine aircraft.
Darby continued his discussion with even more 'damning'
statistics... especially when it comes to the retirement of the
current pilot population. Darby's analysis concludes that
'established airlines will retire 50% of their pilots by 2017 - 17%
to 49%,' and that very few pilots are flying past age 60 as FE. He
further posits that changing the retirement age to 65 in 2007 will
reduce retirements by at least 4,000 to 8,000 pilots over the next
5 years. Still, he expects that the major airlines would have
retired 2,000 pilots each year. The other airlines add an
additional 1,000 retirements, annually. AIR, Inc. estimates that
between 5,000 and 10,000 pilots will remain in the workforce over
the next 5 years - thereafter annual retirements will be the
same.
Darby also opines that future pilot productivity gains will be
small... the The FAA maximum allowable flight times are 1000
hrs/year leaving the pilot some 83 hours per month of flight
time... and that airline operations are perilously close to this
utilization already. Kit talked extensively about changes to the
pilot population... everything from the overall ease in eyesight
protocols (with 20-30% now using some type of visual correction) to
the state of foreign hires. He noted that most western European
carriers did not hire U.S. pilots, previously, but that now they
do! He also stated that immigration with the right-to-work is
difficult or impossible, with foreign pilot hiring and training
procedures said to be 'very different.'
On the subject of corporate flying, the AIR presentation noted
that (at the time of the presentation), some 18,161 pilots were
crewing for 14,079 A/C. He summarized the situation by noting that,
'Corporate jobs are harder to obtain... Who you know really
counts... Recommendations are a must... The network is critical to
getting most corporate jobs.' There's much more to this
presentation and we urge you to check it out right away... as
Darby's efforts are easily one of the most cohesive studies we've
ever been privy to.
So... worried yet? You should be. The situation is troublesome,
answers are few and aviation safety can only be negatively impacted
if the situation is not dealt with. Not sure about that? Well...
check out Part Two of our series on Understanding the Pilot
Shortage and see if you don't agree that this is an issue that
needs urgent attention.
E-I-C Note: This is the second in
an extensive series on this topic... each of which will be
presented every Monday (barring special programming requirements
for breaking news or special event coverage) until completed...
ANN's Daily Aero-Term (04.20.24): Light Gun
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