Historian Says Russian Flights Preferable To Wasting Money, Safety Risk

Facing a dearth of resources and the need to implement America's next-generation manned space program, NASA needs to stop wasting money on the space shuttle and devote its full resources to the Constellation program. That's the opinion of noted space historian John Logsdon, who says the benefits of retiring the shuttle fleet on-time in 2010 outweigh the distasteful aspects of relying on Russia for space access over the next five years.

In a Washington Post op-ed piece this week, Logsdon notes he was part of the 2003 Columbia Accident Investigation Board... which recommended the US replace the shuttle "as soon as possible."

"In practical terms, lacking any US-created alternative, retiring the shuttle would mean relying on the Russian Soyuz spacecraft to carry American astronauts to the space station for at least four years," Logsdon writes. "NASA Administrator Mike Griffin has described US dependence on Russia for transportation to space as "unseemly." Indeed it is, but it is preferable to continuing to fly the shuttle past 2010.

"Another accident could delay or even end the US program of human spaceflight," he adds, noting NASA itself estimates the chances of losing another shuttle crew in a catastrophic accident at one-in-80. Those are perhaps mathematically acceptable odds when only talking about the handful of remaining scheduled shuttle flights... but "simply too high," Logsdon maintains, when talking about adding 10 more flights over the next six years.

In addition to that admittedly emotional argument, Logsdon takes a more pragmatic approach... noting the shuttle essentially takes up unnecessary space when docked to the International Space Station, that would be better utilized by a pair of Russian Soyuz space capsules.

"Beginning next year, the International Space Station will have a six-person crew that must be able to exit immediately as a safety measure," he writes. "Two Soyuz spacecraft, which each carry three people, need to be in place at the space station at all times. The shuttle, never designed for long stays in space, is not able to stay at the space station longer than a few weeks at a time; this rules it out as a viable rescue option...

"The shuttle is also very expensive to operate; this year's shuttle budget is close to $3 billion," Logsdon continues. "If the United States continues to spend that money on flying the shuttle beyond 2010, it will take even longer to develop a replacement vehicle, further delaying US plans to venture beyond low Earth orbit."

Current estimates from NASA state the first manned flight of an Orion space capsule won't lift off until 2015, as ANN has reported.

Logsdon admits the idea of the US relying on Russia space capsules to journey to the ISS isn't an appealing one -- especially now, as the Russian bear appears to be stirring anew -- but notes the decision has economic benefits, as well as possible diplomatic incentives.

"This choice is made more complex by renewed Russian assertiveness, as demonstrated by its incursion into disputed Georgian territory in August," Logsdon says. "A decision not to use Soyuz could increase tensions in other areas of the US-Russian relationship. Should altering American plans to depend on the Soyuz spacecraft be one of the ways in which the US government shows its disapproval of Russian actions? I think not.

"The prudent choice here is to get on with current plans, which call for a US-led international effort to return to the moon and then prepare for voyages to Mars," Logsdon concludes. "This is a smarter and more forward-looking decision than continuing to operate a costly, flawed system. The space shuttle is a remarkable technological achievement, but replacing it soon is the best path to the future. We should not let false pride or international tensions get in the way of an intelligent approach to exploring the final frontier."

Logsdon's op-ed comes as the PBS series "Nova" premiered its documentary "Space Shuttle Disaster," about the Columbia accident, this week. The writer -- who holds the Lindbergh chair in aerospace history at the National Air and Space Museum, and was former director of George Washington University's Space Policy Institute -- is featured on that program.

FMI: Read The Full Op-Ed At WashingonPost.com; www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/, www.gwu.edu/~spi/biosketch.2002.html