Analyst: GA Recovery Organizing Slowly, Quietly | Aero-News Network
Aero-News Network
RSS icon RSS feed
podcast icon MP3 podcast
Subscribe Aero-News e-mail Newsletter Subscribe

Airborne Unlimited -- Recent Daily Episodes

Episode Date

AMA Drone Report

Airborne-Monday

Airborne-Tuesday

Airborne-Wednesday

Airborne-Thursday

Airborne-Friday

Airborne-Unmanned w/AUVSI

Airborne On ANN

AMA 05.25.17

Airborne
05.22.17

Airborne
05.23.17

Airborne
05.24.17

Airborne
05.25.17

Airborne
05.26.17

Airborne-Unmanned 05.23.17

Airborne-YouTube

AMA 05.25.17

Airborne
05.22.17

Airborne
05.23.17

Airborne
05.24.17

Airborne
05.25.17

Airborne
05.26.17

Airborne-Unmanned 05.23.17

XPONENTIAL Innovation Preview -- www.allthingsunmanned.com

Tue, Jan 05, 2010

Analyst: GA Recovery Organizing Slowly, Quietly

Industry "More Pessimistic Than Is Warranted"

Aviation industry analyst Brian Foley says GA is entering a recovery phase as 2010 begins. Foley, who was predicting "measurable signs of recovery by mid-2010" at this time last year, says his outlook has not changed.

Still, the analyst does not predict a speedy recovery. He says it will be gradual and stealthy when compared to the abrupt drop that got us here.  "Whereas we were whiplashed by the speed and severity of the downturn, we've now begun a six-year upcycle whose pace will seem glacial in comparison. We were also a little spoiled by the robustness of business conditions near the top of the last cycle.   The new "normal" will average out somewhere between then and now, and expectations should be recalibrated accordingly."
 
Foley says after the steep decline in the GA industry, the psychological pendulum has swung too far the other way, with the industry feeling generally more pessimistic than is warranted.  "This, too, is understandable," he said.  "We've all been bombarded by negativity for so long, and suffered firsthand the downturns in our own businesses, that it's hard to visualize an improvement."

Foley cites key evidence behind the brightening outlook.  For example, the US Treasury yield curve is widening to a record, signaling recovery.   And the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) climbed to 2.2% in the third quarter of 2009 (historically, 3% would indicate a favorable aircraft-sales environment), the fastest pace since 2007.  Stock markets around the world have rebounded smartly and the dollar value is still low.  "With their strong local currencies and faster healing economies, it's our thesis that non-US buyers will deplete the most desirable pre-owned inventory, forcing still-recovering US buyers to lead the new aircraft recovery later."

Foley adds that while inflation doesn't seem to be a problem (yet), he believes some may hedge by buying hard, high-value assets (such as an airplane) at today's depressed prices and low interest rates.   Finally, pent-up demand can't be overlooked as the sales drought approaches its second anniversary in 2010.  "Just as some individual investors regret having sold their stocks at a market low, there's likely a degree of remorse among one-time buyers who cancelled orders prematurely."

Foley said that while historically the typical general aviation cycle lasts around six years, this downcycle was compressed into a much shorter time frame by a monumental shock forcing it to trough in a matter of months, not years.   "With that catastrophic event now largely behind us, we've likely already embarked on what will hopefully be a full six-year upswing."

FMI: www.www.BRiFO.com

Advertisement

More News

Airborne-Unmanned 05.23.17: Courts Nix Model Regs, Autonymous Flt, WATT 300

Also: King Schools Update, Kittyhawk APP, Robird And Integrated Drone Solutions, ICAO Drone Tracking The unmanned community got a bit of a jolt late last week when the US Court of >[...]

AMA Drone Report 05.25.17: Court Kills FAA Model Drone Registration, DJI Spark!

Also: AMA Reacts To Court, FAA Reaction, AUVSI Reaction, Kittyhawk Flight Deck APP Score one for us little guys... As you may have heard, the U.S. Court of Appeals in Washington, D>[...]

Airborne 05.26.17: Elvis' Jetstar, ACJ330neo, Redbull's Muroya Aims For Chiba

Also: Revitalizing The Aero-Verse, NAAA's Concerns, 737 Air Tankers, SD Air & Space Museum, LAX Mishap, Avidyne After sitting on a runway in Roswell, NM for more than 30 years,>[...]

ANN's Daily Aero-Term (05.28.17): Security Notice (SECNOT)

Security Notice (SECNOT) A SECNOT is a request originated by the Air Traffic Security Coordinator (ATSC) for an extensive communications search for aircraft involved, or suspected >[...]

ASA Names Director Of Marketing

Brian Snider Has Worked For The Company Since 2008 Aviation Supplies & Academics, Inc. (ASA) is pleased to announce that Brian Snider has accepted the Director of Marketing pos>[...]

blog comments powered by Disqus



Advertisement

Advertisement

Podcasts

Advertisement

© 2007 - 2017 Web Development & Design by Pauli Systems, LC