Analyst: GA Recovery Organizing Slowly, Quietly | Aero-News Network
Aero-News Network
RSS icon RSS feed
podcast icon MP3 podcast
Subscribe Aero-News e-mail Newsletter Subscribe

Airborne Unlimited -- Recent Daily Episodes

Episode Date

AMA Drone Report

Airborne-Monday

Airborne-Tuesday

Airborne-Wednesday

Airborne-Thursday

Airborne-Friday

Airborne-Unmanned w/AUVSI

Airborne On ANN

AMA 09.21.17

Airborne 09.18.17

Airborne 09.19.17

Airborne 09.20.17

Airborne 09.21.17

Airborne 09.22.17

Airborne-Unmanned 09.19.17

Airborne-YouTube

AMA 09.21.17

Airborne 09.18.17

Airborne 09.19.17

Airborne 09.20.17

Airborne 09.21.17

Airborne 09.22.17

Airborne-Unmanned 09.19.17

NEW!!! 2017 AirVenture Innovation Preview -- YouTube Presentation / Vimeo Presentation

Tue, Jan 05, 2010

Analyst: GA Recovery Organizing Slowly, Quietly

Industry "More Pessimistic Than Is Warranted"

Aviation industry analyst Brian Foley says GA is entering a recovery phase as 2010 begins. Foley, who was predicting "measurable signs of recovery by mid-2010" at this time last year, says his outlook has not changed.

Still, the analyst does not predict a speedy recovery. He says it will be gradual and stealthy when compared to the abrupt drop that got us here.  "Whereas we were whiplashed by the speed and severity of the downturn, we've now begun a six-year upcycle whose pace will seem glacial in comparison. We were also a little spoiled by the robustness of business conditions near the top of the last cycle.   The new "normal" will average out somewhere between then and now, and expectations should be recalibrated accordingly."
 
Foley says after the steep decline in the GA industry, the psychological pendulum has swung too far the other way, with the industry feeling generally more pessimistic than is warranted.  "This, too, is understandable," he said.  "We've all been bombarded by negativity for so long, and suffered firsthand the downturns in our own businesses, that it's hard to visualize an improvement."

Foley cites key evidence behind the brightening outlook.  For example, the US Treasury yield curve is widening to a record, signaling recovery.   And the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) climbed to 2.2% in the third quarter of 2009 (historically, 3% would indicate a favorable aircraft-sales environment), the fastest pace since 2007.  Stock markets around the world have rebounded smartly and the dollar value is still low.  "With their strong local currencies and faster healing economies, it's our thesis that non-US buyers will deplete the most desirable pre-owned inventory, forcing still-recovering US buyers to lead the new aircraft recovery later."

Foley adds that while inflation doesn't seem to be a problem (yet), he believes some may hedge by buying hard, high-value assets (such as an airplane) at today's depressed prices and low interest rates.   Finally, pent-up demand can't be overlooked as the sales drought approaches its second anniversary in 2010.  "Just as some individual investors regret having sold their stocks at a market low, there's likely a degree of remorse among one-time buyers who cancelled orders prematurely."

Foley said that while historically the typical general aviation cycle lasts around six years, this downcycle was compressed into a much shorter time frame by a monumental shock forcing it to trough in a matter of months, not years.   "With that catastrophic event now largely behind us, we've likely already embarked on what will hopefully be a full six-year upswing."

FMI: www.www.BRiFO.com

Advertisement

More News

Airborne 09.22.17: Breitling DC-3, World Aerobatic Championships, CFI Training

Also: Egan PLIMP, Aero-Honesty, Orbital ATK, United Airlines 747, New AIA Boss, Bristow Norway, ABS Celebrates 50th Having departed from Geneva last March, the Breitling DC-3 made >[...]

RFP: ANN Seeking New Site/Facility For Major Studio Upgrade

It's Official: Aggressive Upgrades For New Airborne Programs WILL Require New Digs It's been in development for years, but we're getting to a point where we think we can pull off s>[...]

Airborne-Unmanned 09.19.17: FAA OKs FL Drone Ops, ICAO Registry?, No Pot Drones

Also: FAA Reauthorization, Medical Drone Transport, USMC Quadcopters, Canister Launched UAS, Atlas Dynamics Airborne, primarily based in Jacksonville, FL is starting to recover fro>[...]

AMA Drone Report 09.21.17: AMA Expo West, Parrot Mambo, No Drone Pot Delivery

Also: Drone Injury Study, Cook County-IL, Northeastern Drone Society, Propel Star Wars Drones, GA UAS Integration One of the pinnacle model aviation events of the year is coming up>[...]

AMA Comments On Singer Decision

Dr. Michael Singer’s Victory in A Federal Court Has Serious Legal Potential Rich Hanson, President of the Academy of Model Aeronautics (AMA), has issued the following stateme>[...]

blog comments powered by Disqus



Advertisement

Advertisement

Podcasts

Advertisement

© 2007 - 2017 Web Development & Design by Pauli Systems, LC