Rolls-Royce has released its annual ten-year forecast of worldwide turbine helicopter deliveries. The forecast projects worldwide deliveries of turbine-powered helicopters and rotary-wing unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) in all size classes, both civil and military, from 2006 until the end of year 2015.

For the fifth year running, Rolls-Royce has teamed-up with industry forecasting specialist the Teal Group to provide the definitive turbine helicopter market forecast. This partnership allows the companies to pool their respective analytical tools, industry insight and forecasting databases, thereby creating the most accurate survey available.

OVERALL SUMMARY

During the 2006-2015 period, some 10,915 turbine rotorcraft deliveries are forecast worldwide (with an associated airframe value of $95.0 billion and an installed engine value of $8.9 billion). This figure reaffirms last year’s forecast, with substantial military fleet replenishment taking place while the civil forecast remains stable.

Although several military rotorcraft programs continue to experience funding- and development-related delays, the number and severity of these postponements appears to have tailed-off compared to previous years. This is due to a combination of factors, including the onset of several programs into production, and a degree of balance having now been achieved between the immediate operational funding requirements in support of the ‘War On Terror’ and the longer-term re-equipment needs of the world’s armed forces. While it is possible that some nations may consider refocusing procurement funds towards upgrades rather than new-buy efforts as a short-term funding solution, the well-known risks associated with major rebuilds can be expected to limit the extent of this reprioritization.

On a unit basis, the split between civil and military sales is again forecast to be 48:52, with the split by aircraft value being 15:85, or 22:78 by engine value. In addition to underscoring the relatively larger size (and hence cost) of most military rotorcraft, this value split does of course also reflect the higher cost of mission avionics, etc., fitted to military rotorcraft.

CIVIL SUMMARY

Civil helicopter deliveries are projected to total 5,191 units during the next ten years, one percent higher than last year’s forecast. The associated value of this market is forecast to be $13.9 billion in airframes and $1.9 billion in installed engines. This stability reflects the long-term health of the civil helicopter market, with anticipated new product introduction towards the end of the decade bolstered by strong near-term demand from offshore operators and law enforcement agencies.

Turbine singles (57 percent of deliveries) and light twins (22 percent) will dominate the market, with the intermediate class of aircraft forecast to capture 18 percent. Deliveries are expected to remain above 500 units annually through to the end of the period. These figures exclude civil helicopter types utilized in military and armed paramilitary roles, such as basic training and coast guard duties, with these applications instead being included in the military forecast.

MILITARY SUMMARY

Our forecast projects a total of 5,724 military helicopter deliveries and major engine-related upgrades during 2006-2015. The associated value of this market is forecast to be $81.1 billion in airframes and $7.0 billion in installed engines.

The military rotorcraft market is expected to benefit from substantial re-equipment over the period, across all segments. Approximately 44 percent of all unit deliveries will be multi-engine medium rotorcraft, primarily troop transports and maritime patrol aircraft, with 19 percent being intermediate twins (e.g. light attack and tactical utility helicopters) and 18 percent being turbine singles (e.g. armed reconnaissance helicopters and vertical take-off and landing UAVs or VTUAVs).

Shipments of military rotorcraft are forecast to rise substantially over the next four years, before leveling-off for the remainder of the period. Although the predicted re-equipment phase will include a number of major engine-related upgrade programs, the volume of these retrofits has reduced substantially compared to prior estimates, due to doubts over the cost-benefit of this approach. Major aircraft rebuild programs hold the risk of unexpected corrosion being uncovered, and as a result offer only minor cost savings when compared to new aircraft production. The United States Department of Defense has already decided to pursue new aircraft production rather than remanufacture for a number of important programs (e.g. CH-53K, MH-60R, UH-60M, and UH-1Y), with the AH-1Z and CH-47F/MH-47G programs also now incorporating a degree of new-build aircraft production.

FMI: www.rollsroyce.com