Investors in Raburn's 'Technological Transformation' Find Much To Celebrate

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With the big worries of insurance and training mollified by the early announcements at the 2004 Eclipse Owner's Meeting, it was time for some of the nitty gritty. And there was plenty of it...

Prior to other discussions about the Eclipse program, Vern opined openly about the state of the industry and the VLJ movement... a segment of the industry pretty much defined by the advent of the Eclipse program. The Eclipse briefing remained a pretty positive affair... even when talk turned to the competition. While the E-500's strong points were, of course, front and center; Raburn seemed pleased to be able to talk about the growing VLJ movement in (mostly) positive terms.

Chief among the Eclipse's competitors (of which there are now more than might immediately come to mind), is the Cessna Mustang -- the announcement of which catapulted the Eclipse program from a "maverick idea" (pun intended) to a true industry paradigm shift. When Cessna took up this particular gauntlet, the rest of the industry was forced to take VLJs seriously and quit thinking of them as "Vern's Folly." Raburn has a high opinion of Cessna, admitting that "Cessna doesn't build bad airplanes," but also notes that the $2.4 million price of the Mustang is more than twice that of the Eclipse... reflected by Cessna's more limited order book of some 230 aircraft, where Eclipse has well over 2100. The Mustang is expected to be certified in the 3rd Quarter of 2006 and their next available airframe can't be delivered until mid 2009. The Mustang is powered by the bigger cousin of the Eclipse's Pratt & Whitney 610F, the PW 615F (shown below)... an engine that boasts about 50% more thrust than the versions destined for the Eclipse and is now flying on one side of a Citation test bed. It has 105 flight hours at last report.

One other quasi-competitive aircraft, at least in terms of overall hype, is the Adam A700. Once a darling of the VLJ hype wars, the A700's slow progress (having pushed back four cert dates) and the increasingly questionable BS ratio of the parent company, is making the A700 look more and more questionable. Its piston cousin, the A500, is expected to enter production shortly (after years of delays, 5 so far, and at least one more delay expected) but is not likely before the end of the year. Adam's original claim of piggybacking the A700 certification off of the A500 is finally getting corrected by the company spinmeisters... especially after a number of FAA sources stated that Adam's original plan was a pipedream. Raburn's briefing was far more kind about such details, but he did note that of the 105 announced orders for the $2.1 million dollar twin jet (not counting some over-publicized fleet deals that have yet to be backed up by real money or even the ID of the purchaser), that the company has yet to fly a conforming prototype... since the current A700 demonstrator is not (even remotely) a conforming airframe and is of little true value to the certification effort.

On a more positive note, there appears to be a growing (and exciting) middle ground developing between the conventional GA world and the twin-engine VLJ market -- involving a new generation of SINGLE engine jets. The most prominent of these programs is the D-Jet (shown below) announced by GA heavyweight Diamond Aircraft... another company singled out for praise by Raburn. The FJ-33 powered D-Jet is expected in late 2006 (and may be further delayed since Diamond is working so many hot projects at the same time) and the first bird is expected to fly late next year. There are reports that Diamond is considering offering this bird with an emergency airframe parachute system--a potential first for the jet market.

The entry level SE Jet market is expected to be a hot one... but may be particularly so for those aircraft associated with an established manufacturer... such as the D-Jet and another SE Jet rumored to be coming from Cirrus Design (another company earning high praise from Eclipse management). Little is officially known about this project (we know a bit more... but Klapmeier would kill us if we spilled the beans...) but what little has been said about it indicates that a Jet Cirrus will be a logical extension of the Cirrus line rather than something a bit more unique. This project is not expected to see an announcement for at least a year.

Other expected VLJ projects were discussed briefly... including a rumored Embraer light jet that is now on the back burner due to the soft market for their other products. The well-publicized Honda Jet project is likely to be a bit bigger than most of the VLJs... since their powerplant is likewise sized. That product announcement is anticipated for late 2005 at the earliest... but could come later depending on how their powerplant development program progresses. Thr rumored IAI/Avocet deal looks to be foundering and while no one expects IAI to ignore the VLJ market for good, they are expected to look elsewhere for a VLJ concept. The bankrupt single engine Vantage program is being resurrected by Eviation as a twin engine bird... but the odds are against this failed program getting back on track--way too much water seems to have flown past this dam. The Epic single engine turbine program is being expanded to offer a jet, in concert with a firm from the Republic of Georgia. This is a talented design team and if properly financed, an intriguing airframe is expected. Initially offered to the kit market, certification is promised for an unspecified future date. Aerocomp's roomy CA-J (shown below) has been flying for several months and is doing quite well... but is expected to only be offered in kit form. Powered by a single reman'd AI-25 powerplant, Aerocomp's excellent track record in turbine kit-built aircraft is expected to see this spacious eight seater through to completion.

The former Maverick TwinJet is pretty much dead and buried (and probably should be), thanks to the horrific "Bravo-Sierra" that followed this project's every move after it left Colorado and went to Florida. It had some potential as a kit aircraft (and flew fairly well), but the management of the company that took this project over seemed to have mismanaged it into the ground. A cousin to the TwinJet, though, built and designed by the same talented guy who built the prototype Maverick, is expected to fly next year. Called the Sport-Jet, it is a 4 place single engine bird that is destined for certification. In the lunatic fringe category, one hesitates to mention that the abandoned Jetcruizer single engine turbine project has been bought up and is expected to be offered to the kit market... but with numerous problems still inherent in the aircraft, there is much work to be done if this aircraft is to be taken seriously... which is a long shot.

One of the reasons that Raburn recounted these programs was to emphasize how well the Eclipse 500 program is faring at the moment. Since the last owner's meeting two years before, the aircraft has seen tremendous development. The certification program is going exceptionally well (as confirmed by our FAA sources), and the new engine program has already logged more operating time than the entire EJ22 program did (though, not yet in flight). Further, Raburn promised all those in the room that the program was on schedule and working within cost projections. That's a lofty claim after all they've been through, but we've seen nothing to prove him wrong... though we're watching the whole kit and kaboodle like a hawk (with unprecedented and nearly unlimited access granted by Eclipse--which we think is very smart on their part).

Raburn is aware that this program is what is kindly called a "disruptive" technology... in that its successful fruition requires the rest of the industry to radically change its modus operandi or be lost. Really.

Face it, how easy will it be to sell multi-million dollar single engine turbo-props or twin-engine recips/turbines when a twin engine, high-technology jet can be had for a million and change? Eclipse is expected to be a true industry paradigm shifter -- or one of our industry's most embarrassing failures -- if it all goes for naught... but, as one industry wag puts it "there just ain't no percentage in betting against Raburn."

We agree.

For the moment, Eclipse says that they believe that they can still meet their many guarantees -- and they put it in writing... again. They say that the current program promises a Max Cruise Speed of 375 kts (+/-2.5%), a Stall Speed of 67 kts (+/- 4%), a Range (with 4 occupants, high speed cruise, NBAA 100 nm reserves, 0 wind, ISA, a 200 pound pilot and 3 170 pound pax) of 1,280 nm (+/- 5%), and a Useful Load of 2,250 lb. The company STILL expects to certify the beast by March of 1006, but promises it by September. 

One of the other factors that kept the whole gathering so upbeat was the growing partnership that has been built in the last two years between Eclipse and Pratt & Whitney. With some 2000 jet orders on the books and a need for 4000 engines, it wasn't hard to believe that Eclipse had a number of suitors when the Williams deal went "Tango Uniform." Some serious players showed up at their door... but P&W was the world beater that Eclipse truly needed to get them back on track, and it sure appears that this program is getting there. The successor to the EJ22 is the 900 pound thrust PW610F. It is a dual channel FADEC controlled powerplant that expects to be certified with a 1750 hour interval between hot sections, and a 3500 hour TBO. It has a 14 inch diameter fan and weighs less than 260 pounds.

Numerous Eclipse staffers sang the praises of this program, with Senior VP Oliver Masefield going so far as to call the 610F the "PT-6 of the 21st century," and Raburn intoning that P&W has, thus far, "met or exceeded every promise" they've made. More important, P&W has an amazing service and support network -- meaning that whatever issues E-500 drivers may face, help can't be far away... and this fact was not lost on those in attendance... who are coming (finally) to see the previous Williams problems as a "blessing in disguise."

Testing is reportedly going well on P&W test stands, and actual flight hours are expected to be logged in the "not too distant future," so we're following these claims and plans with great interest... and we'll keep you informed of progress.

Next: As the saga continues... The Eclipse team talks systems, options, and future offerings... plus we get a chance to chat with some of the folks that are waiting for their own E-500s. Stay tuned...

To Be Continued

FMI: www.eclipseaviation.com