What Will This Traditional Vacation Season Bring?

Ahh, spring. It's time to be optimistic. Take, for instance, the eternal hope of a baseball coach just before the first official cry of "Play ball!" For the boys of summer, spring means every hitter is a triple-crown winner, every fielder a Golden Glove winner. Every game is a winning streak and every team can win the pennant.

Have you ever noticed how much like baseball forecasting the summer is for airlines?

But, as baseball players are soon hampered by injuries, team fortunes sink and that pennant race races on without them, airlines, too, are in for a reality check.

The good news is that there are no storm clouds of war gathering on the horizon. The bad news is that war is here. The good news is there's no massive SARS outbreak. The bad news is SARS has escaped its lab confines again -- this time, in China. The good news is that the US economy is improving. The bad news is the massive jump in fuel prices. And yet, aviation's boys of summer are still hopeful.

"We are very optimistic about summer travel," said American Airlines' Tom Gleason.

"May is booking at or above last year's levels in each region," according to David Neeleman, founder, chairman and chief executive of New York- based JetBlue Airways.

"They've seen better times, but they've seen worse times," said Anthony Sabino. He covers the airline industry at St. John's University's business school. In other words, it's getting better -- slowly. And there are lots of little numbers and footnotes around such qualified statements.

AAL's traffic is up almost 11 percent over last year at this time. Capacity was up only 5.6 percent, meaning more passengers per flight. Overall, domestic travel was up eight percent in March. Accountants PriceWaterhouseCooper predict a two percent industry-wide rise in traffic between the Memorial and Labor Day holiday weekends.

Fuel prices. No one expected crude oil would top $37 a barrel, driving the cost of Jet-A through the ceiling. If anything can harsh the industry's fledgling buzz, it'll be fuel prices.

But for now, the airlines' front offices seem a little like those at the ballparks just a few weeks ago. Summer is right around the corner. The sun is shining and there's a gentle breeze blowing in from left field.

FMI: www.nata.aero