It's just impossible to make predictions, so we'll limit ourselves a little here, and talk about the Unlimited race, where the rumors are hottest, and where everybody has an opinon.

Heck -- we have opinions, too; but sometimes it's good to listen to the people whose opinions may be better-informed. [This isn't politics, after all -- there are quantifiable facts available --ed.]

Prior to the race, there is a lot of psych-ing out going on, of course; teams will be happy to share their 'official' opinions, their 'official' stories. Each story naturally is put together for one purpose: to let everyone else believe what the teller wants them to believe. Sometimes, these stories are absolutely true; sometimes, they're nowhere close. The fun part is figuring out who's telling the truth, and when. It's all part of racing -- before the race starts; but when the starter says, "You have a race," all the BS stops. That's one reason why people love racing!

The trick, ahead of the race, is to cut through all the messages, and figure out just what is likely to happen.

Here's what's likely to happen:

If the day is hot, the Mustangs (like Dago Red) will not be able to run flat out for long, but the radial-powered machines (like Rare Bear and Dreadnought, and the other Sea Furies, even the Yak) will. The weatherman says Sunday will be very much like all week so far: low 80s, light breezes. That means that the Mustangs will be able to use nearly all their available horses, and the power advantage of the radials will be reduced.

If Friday's and Saturday's heat races are predictors of Sunday, Dago Red will win in a relative walk; but Friday's heat is probably not indicative. Rare Bear, with one engine available for maybe the rest of its life, wasn't about to get close to blowing anything up, in a heat race. Its heat speed, some fifteen miles slower than Dago's, is thus not giving us a solid benchmark.

There's more.

The friendly rivalry between Rare Bear and Dago Red is heating up, to the point where somebody even 'TP'd' Dago Red's paddock. Supporters of Rare Bear are suspected, and it's not just an educated guess. The toilet paper was custom-printed, and notified the Mustang team that "The Bear is Back." The next time they flew (which was Friday), Skip Holm felt very much like serving notice that Dago Red never left. He flew every lap over 500mph! Skip told me Saturday morning, "The temperatures were perfect... everything was perfect." So it would seem.

Oh -- and this may not be significant [yeah, right] -- Rare Bear's team pulled an all-nighter Friday after the heat race, to replace two cylinders. "Probably valve guides," was the oft-heared muttering at the Bear's hangar.

On race day, Rare Bear may very well be ready to kick serious Dago Red butt -- but John Penney's got to catch Skip Holm first. Dago has a big logistical advantage: Rare Bear is flying on its only engine. I overheard some crew talk, from one of the tired mechanics: "We're NOT going to break that motor..." That, if it's official team strategy, means that Rare Bear won't risk having to replace that 4000+hp mill here in Reno. A fellow mechanic, from another contending Unlimited team, said that means Rare Bear is headed for second place, "unless Dago breaks... and that's not going to happen."

Rare Bear isn't ready to go to a museum yet, though, and its legion fans were packed around the souvenier table in their paddock, buying t-shirts, paintings, photos...

What about the rest of the field?

The'slowest' machine in Friday's Unlimited Gold heat, Czech Mate, ran like a train, and posted a 445 mph race lap. The Yak still hasn't dripped a drop of oil, and the crew said, "It's running great." Fast enough to have won the gold in most previous years, in fact.

Furias crewman Dale told me, "We ran 445 -- that's the fastest this plane's ever gone." Furias had a little oil showing at the edge of the spinner, and the Sea Fury's crew looked in, Saturday morning. "Remember Czech Mate's runaway prop last year?" he asked. "Their governor was a little low on oil. That cost them an engine. We're OK -- we know that now -- but we wanted to be sure."

Dreadnought's crew chief, the legendary Chuck Cabe (right), told us that his machine is running well. "It's a stock engine, now," he said, in the 2-place Sea Fury. We're not making the horsepower we used to in the '80s (when Dreadnought won the race here, in '83 and '86). We're turning only 2850 rpm; we used to go 3250." That race engine ran for eleven years, an eternity in racing. "The new engine should last at least eleven more," he said. Same prop? "It's the same modified Sky Raider prop that has always been on this machine," he noted.

Miss America, after having been as much as totaled last year, had been putting up a valiant show all week. In Saturday's heat race, though, Dr. Hisey called a Mayday. A quick response: "Brent, put it on one-four, NOW." He landed without incident, under greatly reduced power, and asked for a tow in. Miss America, racer since 1969 and Silver winner in '94 (and '73, when it was called the 'consolation' race), Bronze winner in '94 and '96, will be silent on Sunday.

In Sport Class, the consensus among the competitors is that unless Darryl Greenamyer's Lancair doesn't start, it will win. It's 40 mph faster than second-fastest plane, and Darryl has everyone thinking that he has more speed available, if he needs it. Dave Morss, who has devastated the competition in that class since it was formed, is running in the Silver race. We couldn't catch up to Dave, but some grumbling was heard that he's 'sandbagging,' looking to win the Silver, because he can't keep up with Greenamyer. That doesn't sound like the competitive Morss we know. Hey, Dave, what's up?

The T-6 class was led by Mary Dilda in Two of Hearts, but something -- we're looking into it -- happened in the heat race Saturday, that may sideline that beautiful airplane, and its elegant pilot. At least that's what we think the announcer said...

Formula One looks like a runaway for Mariah, with Gary Hubler holding the stick. Last year's winner faced a challenge early on from Miss B. Haven, but Charlie Greer's little racer blew an engine early in the week. The replacement engine was of unknown provenance, and on Saturday afternoon, #69 was spotted over at American Air Racing, where John Parker had sensors hooked up to it. There was some strange vibration going on. Charlie told me, "Well, we had a chance..." Later in the day, a crew member told me Parker's advice had perhaps helped a little (they couldn't flight-test it, but it seemed better in a static runup). Charlie was working down on the floor of the cockpit, with a piece of coarse sandpaper. "We found something else," he said to me. Then he looked around, and asked everyone within earshot, "Does anybody have a 9-volt battery?"

The jets may be fun to watch racing (and they are), but they're no 'fun' in the paddock. The machines are abandoned most of the time, buttoned up tight as Queen Victoria's jewel case. The L-39 trainers are so reliable, the theory goes, that nobody works on 'em. The four pilots -- Curt Brown, Lee Behel, Jimmy Leeward, and Mary Dilda -- all have their own planes, in different classes, to race. It's a spectator's race, to be sure, as the field is tighter. The planes stay together better than the 40 mph qualifying differential would suggest. Mary Dilda's really fast, though, qualifying 30 mph ahead of second-fastest, Porsche dealer supreme, Lee Behel.

What's the drama story?

As of late Saturday, the fastest biplane in the field, Tom Aberle's Phantom, was without a prop. A problem was diagnosed earlier in the week, and a spare prop manifested the same problem. The team has a third prop, but it is from the same maker [Catto -- and ANN left a message on the company's answering machine, about 7PM Saturday, just in case], and they don't trust it. The prop maker was supposed to have been at Reno, and they can't reach him on the phone at his home base. If he's at Reno, his cell phone isn't working. Aberle, top qualifier in a plane he made, from a dream to the front of the field in under seven months, will sit this one out.

 FMI: www.airrace.org